The Dow Jones is coming up on it’s next BIG test. Crash 2013 update #5 will cover the recent move in the stock market, back test previous updates, glance at silver/gold, etc. Oh, and BITCOIN! Here is Crash 2013 Update #5.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Crash 2013
Back in update 4, the time period was labelled as the most crucial week. The Dow Jones was coming up on an old and strong resistance line, and it could have been for the final time. So 2 possible outcomes were given for the short term.
- Break Through Resistance
- Reach Resistance and Fail Downward
The Dow Jones broke through resistance.
Break Through Resistance
Well guess what, there is yet another crucial time at hand. It was pointed out that a break of the 15,750 area would be bullish and delay Crash 2013. And the BIG thing to look for was for it to RETEST the resistance as a new support. If the retest fails, the channel would be back in play. If the retest confirms, then there would still be more bulls to shake out of market.
The retest is happening right now!
In fact, just yesterday, Tuesday december 3, there was a big battle at a short term resistance line. Had the dow failed here, the major line mentioned previous would be approached very quickly. As the minute chart played out (posted on facebook), the Dow was saved for at least another day, literally by the bell. But there has been 3 straight bearish days for the first time since September. That may lead to the Dow Jones continuing it’s spiral into Wednesday, December 4. The BIG test should be evident as early as this week!
Also, in the previous update, it was shown how the Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow Jones had drastically different accelerations. This phenomenon has preceded past crashes. As of now, that variation has only increased!
Next Phase in Crash 2013?
We are currently out of the major channel which lasted most of 2013. We broke the 15,742 target, and are now watching for the very important confirmation happening now. So here are a few outcomes in the short term.
BOUNCE OFF OLD RESISTANCE
In this case, confirmation would be made, and old resistance successfully becomes new support. This would be a neutral to bullish move. If we see the Dow stay above the 15,740-15,770 area, it would claim victory over the bears for now. (Note: the 15,742 gets a little play to the upside because the trend line is not perfectly horizontal)
At that point, the Dow Jones would bounce and continue up. Then from there, either continue up, or form a new, higher channel.
As was mentioned in the previous update #4, the retest of 15,742 is ongoing.
BREACH OLD RESISTANCE
If old resistance is breached, then a really bearish tone would take over. This would signify that the break out from the channel wasn’t all that strong to begin with, as it could not be sustained. This could also move much closer the overall Crash 2013.
Once old resistance (new support) is breached, a few things could then result. It could cycle back into the previous channel, it could retest back up, or it could just turn over and run down. In any case, a bearish sentiment would take over the market.
Good News is Bad News Before Crash 2013
As mentioned before, all of the geopolitical problems still exist. These included the Debt Ceiling, Obamacare, Syria, etc. Except for Iran, which was made even more dangerous since our last update.
But much of the news coming from the mainstream is not all that bad. Numbers are twisted and facts are outright ignored. This kind of news often is pushed out during a distribution phase to excite the masses. Meanwhile, the informed investors/traders are making plans and executing their strategies.
You need to go look for the under reported REAL news? “15 Signs That We Are Near The Peak Of An Absolutely Massive Stock Market Bubble“ and “Whenever Margin Debt Goes Over 2.25% Of GDP The Stock Market Always Crashes” bring to light a few factoids. Subscribing to a site like ZeroHedge is much better idea than tuning in to CNBC.
I’m currently still in options on SPXU, SDS, and SDOW. Obviously, my ‘shit hits the fan’ options for November made the wallet an little less heavy, but I knew that risk going in.
As I said previous, I expect to see some action in December. And we are now in December, so……. My March 2014 Dow Short ETF options are eagerly awaiting their revenge on time decay.
I’m not ready to give the green light on gold and silver just yet. I still think the general crash will drag them down more. This in spite of the fact that lower prices effectively will bankrupt some of the smaller silver miners.
However, I will give my blessing to anyone’s interest in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.
In a crash environment, currencies actually become stronger as they are perceived as a safer vehicle. The USD and/or Euro may yet rise in value BEFORE the future hyperinflationary environment is upon us. But many people will refuse to invest in a central bank manipulated currency. For them, digital currencies are very attractive.
I had been monitoring Bitcoin for years now (though unfortunately didn’t invest), and it finally is starting to catch fire. In a future post I will go more indepth with this. But Bitcoin, Litecoin, Peercoin, Feathercoin, Anoncoin, Worldcoin, Stablecoin, and on, and on. They should all be on your radar. Some of these currencies are showing a 25%…50%…100% gain…….in ONE DAY!
This is highly speculative right now, but if you understand the value and possible world changing impact cryptocurrencies have, then it’s a much better bet than the Dow Jones. I modest investment in these currencies could literally make millionaires and billionaires. As with anything, only invest what you can afford to lose. More on cryptocurrencies in the not-too-distant future. Feel free to ask any questions.
Crash 2013 Update #5 Closing
This is now put up or shut up time for the Dow Jones. Will it bounce off it’s new support line (old resistance) and travel to greater heights? Will it fail and prove that Dow 16,000 was only a mirage? We will see very shortly.
While this all goes on, keep an eye on any false flag or black swan events. There is no chart indicator to look at to gauge when one of those will happen. I had said in previous updates that I thought December would be a month to watch.
The entire global economy is STILL fragile and many people are abandoning the traditional economy in favor of anonymous digital currencies. We are on the edge of a paradigm shift and it seems to all be culminating at relatively the same time.
The current system is unsustainable. It is not a matter of IF, it’s a matter of WHEN. Use it to your advantage.
With God’s Will
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