Archive for October, 2013
October 24th, 2013 by Vigilo
Finding balance is the key in many aspects of life. One of the most crucial areas, if not THE most crucial, is finding balance between avoiding ignorance and worry. It’s literally a matter of life and death.
The idea behind this post is directed towards my mother. Over the last several months she has been stressing out and worrying over her future and financial sustainability. She has been dwelling on past mistakes and really struggling to move on.
“Why did I do this?” “How could I waste that?” “What was I thinking?”… Do these questions sound familiar?
While it’s important to learn from the past, it’s equally important to leave the past. Finding balance between avoiding ignorance and also avoiding worry will be paramount. This writing is not just for my mom though, it can be applied to your mother as well….and even to your siblings, cousins, aunts, uncles, and YOU. Everybody has their problems and some are more dysfunctional than others….so what?! Get over it!
Whether we are looking at Pride vs Humiliation….Cocky vs Timid….Hyper vs Depressed….or in this case, Ignorance vs Worry. Finding balance IS the key.
Finding balance to avoid Ignorance
I’m sure we all have heard the saying, “Ignorance is bliss.” Well, that statement is true, ignorance IS bliss. However, that’s not the end of the phrase. The rest of it concludes “until it shreds you like a rip saw.” OK, so maybe I took a little liberty with the phrase, but the point remains.
You absolutely need to be aware of history and the lessons learned from it. The failure in finding balance and succumbing to ignorance can be death.
- The Jews caught of guard by the Nuremburg laws and subsequent imprisonment, or worse.
- The in Russia who lost their land, then exiled or worse.
- The American oblivious to the foundation of their nation’s currency.
Yeah, that last one is a bit forward thinking, but in all of these cases, the writing was on the wall. Either the people were too consumed to take the time to read it, or they just didn’t think it would get THAT bad. Ignorance got the best of them. Ignorance can KILL you.
Finding Balance to avoid Worry
While reading Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s Gulag Archipelago, there was the story of one who was falsely imprisoned for a time. They were eventually released, but during the abbreviated imprisonment, their mother had died of worry. Do not take that lightly.
Worry can not only outright kill you, but it can age you, add lines to your face, tax your heart, make you sick, eat at your mind, and on and on. If you happen to be healthy right now, and you are prone to worry, you are pretty much begging to give up what health you have.
And For What Reason? What are you hoping to accomplish with all of this worrying? Will worry in of itself actually change an outcome?
Worry will only prevent you from taking the proper action to address the situation. You may end up suffering from a case of ‘analysis paralysis.’ You’ll just sit there and ‘worry’ about possible outcomes instead of focusing on the necessary critical thinking of risk vs reward. Or, you’ll be frazzled and make poor decisions in a hasty effort to end your unfounded worry.
Frame of Mind
First, a few questions for you (my mom) to help put things in perspective.
- Do you have your health?
- Do you have your family?
- Do you have a roof over your head at night?
- Do you generally have food available to eat?
Though the answer to these questions may be a “Yes, BUT..” Stop right there! This isn’t scientific, but just saying “yes” puts you in a better situation than most of the world’s population. Worry will only help you to change your answer to a “no.”. Fact is, even if you DID have to answer “no” to one of these questions, you would just be joining everybody else who is already finding a way to make it in the face of struggle.
Be grateful and cherish everything you have while you have it. Whether it’s in your control or not, any one of these things can be lost in a second. A car wreck, fire, job loss, flood, sudden death, currency collapse, war, etc. These are not things to worry about, they are merely facts of life.
If it happens, you pick up the pieces, take any lessons to be learned, and move on. That simple….sometimes hard, but simple. Humans are very resilient if you realize our capacity.
War of Questions
There are questions we run through our minds that can actually frame/form our solutions/answers? Can we frame questions in a more beneficial way? Can we even manipulate them from a ‘victim’ question into a ‘grateful’ statement.
“How could I waste all of that money?!” can be “What lesson can I learn from that experience?”
“What was my son thinking?” realizing other’s plight “Thank God I have a son.”
“What am I gonna do when…” can be “How can I best prepare for…”
Accentuate the Positive
Going even further in finding balance…. When things don’t work out, people may ask “What did I do wrong?” Fair question, right? Well another question should be “What did I do correctly?”
By identifying that which does work, you will have the opportunity to build upon it and perfect it. Maybe in your failing business, you did a remarkable job of detailing your losses. Well, the failing business could launch a carreer in accounting. Or maybe you tried 5 different strategies for trading the stock market, and lost money 80% of the time. Which strategy did you use to profit 20% of the time? Can you focus on that one and master the strategy?
A few quotes to think about while finding balance in this battlefield of your mind. “Where the mind goes, the energy flows.” and “Garbage In, Garbage Out.” The best way to guarantee a poor outcome, is to focus and obsess on a poor outcome. The best way to find a positive outcome, is to focus and obsess on a positive outcome. This isn’t some new age, fluffy jargon…. it’s true.
Have no anxiety at all, but in everything, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, make your requests known to God. -Phillippians 4:6
Final Message in Finding Balance
There you go mom (and moms across the world). Finding balance between avoiding ignorance and worry is a life and death matter. Certainly be aware of the threats around you and your family, but don’t be consumed by the mere threat. Even check out these alternative news sources to help you better prepare. Crunch your numbers, take your action, seek knowledge, etc. But DO NOT worry about things of the future. Worry WILL kill you if you let it. The best you can do is the best you can do. So do your best, and give God the rest.
October 23rd, 2013 by Vigilo
So a quick review from my previous update, we were in somewhat of a Descending Triangle pattern (that usually is bearish) and I gave two targets: $1250’s and the lows, if the trend continues. It seemed like everything worked out as Target 1 was hit. However, a day before and a day after the target 1 was hit, there were some red flags that I noticed on the chart as the markets were awaiting the ultimate decision regarding the debt ceiling and government shutdown. This lead me to believe that we may not see Target 2 (the lows) be reached any time soon. I discuss some of my findings in my recent market update.
Government Shutdown & Debt Ceiling Talks Give Gold Another Bullish Chance
Just before the October 17 debt ceiling ‘deadline,’ Obama signed the ‘compromise’ designed to End the Government Shutdown and extend (by time) the debt ceiling. There were also a lot of other news-related issues that triggered a huge sell-off in the dollar, and thus caused a huge, nearly-40pt spike in Gold. Also included was China’s downgrading of the USA from an “A” to an “A-“. This was a huge increase in Gold and could lead to more bullishness to come in the shorter-term.
The resulting price action from the Government Shutdown/Debt Ceiling news gives Gold another chance to create a new uptrend channel (like it did from June – August 2013), however, we will have to see whether it will actually do this or not.
Strong Resistance Ahead of Gold
It would be great news for Gold Bulls if Gold finds follow-through, and they can thank the fundamental news from the Government Shutdown/Debt Ceiling for starting this new trend. As stated in my market update, the key resistance levels is a strong downward channel that was created a year ago, and it was also the same channel which Gold could not pass, but dropped as a result causing a huge Gold Crash in May 2013. The upper portion of this downward channel will proffer resistance in the 1350-1355 area, and then some more at 1377-low 1380’s. These two levels need to be strongly passed before we consider Gold $1400.
I will feel Gold has a strong chance of “kissing” the 200 day moving average that is currently hovering at 1437 if we can take out low the 1380’s. As you all know, I am bearish on Gold in the coming months (but Bullish in the longer term). However, I will strongly reconsider my short-term sentiment on Gold if it can get above the 200MA and especially if it can get above 1533’s. But be warned, 1350’s and the 200MA will be very strong areas to pass!
Look Out For a Possible Squeeze
I did not mention this in the government shutdown market update, but the Bollinger Bands are slowly contracting and if there is no follow-through from the Government Shutdown/Debt Ceiling Gold Spike, we will most likely have a “Squeeze” which will yield a strong move (either to the upside or downside). The longer the “Squeeze” (meaning the longer the volatility stays flat), the more fierce the “fire off” will be. In my previous updates, I talked a lot about Bollinger Band squeezes and one way of how to trade them. But I did want to bring this to your attention should we go sideways.
With all this being said, however, I do feel that the Bearish Target 2, the prior lows of $1179, will be tested sooner or later. The reason is because when something gets sold off like Gold has, the lows usually get retested. If the bottom is in for Gold, it will bounce off $1179 and continue forward very strongly. If it is not the bottom, we will see it pierced and at that point, we will need to look at two key areas: 970’s-1000 and/or 700’s.
Feel free to visit my YouTube Channel should you have any questions or wish to make any comments. Thanks
October 11th, 2013 by Vigilo
In my video update, I discuss many reasons why I have a bearish-neutral perspective on Gold in the very short term, and why I feel we should see Gold $1200 very soon. As stated in my previous update, the $1276 was a critical level that Gold needed to hold and bounce hard from if it wanted to sustain its intermediate uptrend, especially if it wanted to trade in the $1400 region. Days after my update, Gold did touch the $1276 level as expected, however, the bounce was not impressive and raised some red flags. I addressed these concerns on October 6, 2013 in the comment section under that video update on my Youtube Channel, Vinny1010.
On my recent Gold update video on October 10, 2013, I argue cases for both the Bullish & Bearish perspectives and leave it up to you to decide which one is the strongest. Though I clearly stated I have more of a bearish outlook on Gold in the shorter-term, I wanted to at least present both sides so you know exactly why I was leaning towards Gold $1200 (and/or $1179, the summer lows). I am sure you agree that being unbiased is extremely crucial in portraying an accurate analysis of any stock or commodity.
Bullish & Bearish Perspectives: Gold $1200 or will we see Gold $1400 again?
- Gold is still above $1276 level, which technically keeps the intermediate uptrend in-tact
- A larger Inverse Head & Shoulders as yet to be completed (This is a bullish chart pattern)
- Debt Ceiling fears & Government Shutdown issue
- A lot of resistance: 21, 50 & 100 Moving Averages among other key areas
- A downward trendline has been established, and it seems that Gold is having issues surpassing it
- Price action (i.e Candle patterns) are suggesting more selling-pressure than buying pressure.
- Descending Triangle Formation (Bearish chart pattern formation)
- Gold failed to rally on fears of Debt Ceiling concerns and Government Shutdown fears (unlike the past where it rallied pretty hard)
- The prior bounce off the $1276 critical level was very weak and raised red flags of buyers in the market
- Inverse Head & Shoulders completed on August 28, 2013 when Gold reached $1434
- Current price action is now trading under the Ichimoku Cloud suggesting the intermediate uptrend is questionable at this time.
As some of you may have realized, my Gold update was done on October 10, 2013 and the next following day (today), Gold just happened to pierce the critical level of $1276. This piercing opens the floodgates to more downward selling-pressure which will bring about Gold $1200 in the very shorter-term. Look to see Gold to go to $1250 area and then for Gold $1200 and/or $1179 to present itself soon.
GDX Gold Miner ETF Analysis
I also analyzed the Gold Miner ETF, GDX. Though Gold is in a bearish formation, GDX seems to be in a Falling Wedge formation, which is bullish for the miners. This does not mean that GDX will rise while Gold heads towards $1200, but that the downward pressure in the GDX miner will be limited compared to the past. I only advise trading GDX and other Gold Miners when you are experienced enough as they are very volatile. As a disclosure, I currently have Put Options on GDX and though the falling wedge is present, I am not convinced as of yet that it will yield very high price movements as the wedge is rather small.
In conclusion, look for Gold $1200 and GDX Gold Minersto go lower, bounce and then continue much lower as the weeks go by. For the very long term, I am very bullish on precious metals, however, in the shorter-term, it seems there is a lot of selling-pressure that will soon present itself. These volatile and high selling-pressures yield buying opportunities for precious metals investors. Please take advantage of this opportunity!
Finally, please be sure to visit my YouTube channel on a regular basis to check for market updates.
October 3rd, 2013 by Vigilo
This week’s Thursday Thought revolves around Wealth Confiscation and safeguarding one’s wealth. Obviously, it came to me while being in the company of people who have earned themselves wealth. But while this Thursday Thought has them in mind, it is really for everybody who has any type of savings or retirement plan.
This concern of Wealth Confiscation came while attending a Cadre event in Washington D.C. Cadre is a group of successful entrepreneurs who are more interested in HELPING and ADDING VALUE, then they are interested in throwing a sales pitch at a networking event. In fact, Cadre stands for Connecting Advocates. Deepening Relationships. Exclusively. So that pretty much sums it up.
At this particular event, we heard talks from James Altucher and Jay Baer. James has been mentioned on this site before regarding his book “Choose Yourself.” It’s about the ever changing world and why it’s time to Choose Yourself in this new era. And Jay authored a book titled “YOUtility,” which has to do with marketing using a ‘HELP’ mentality, as opposed to a ‘HYPE’ mentality. After they spoke, the Cadre members (and non-members) then gathered up on the balcony for an UN-networking event. There is where the Wealth Confiscation Thursday Thought was formed.
Those in the Cadre group are admittedly further along in the journey as am I. However, even there, I got the same bewilderment concerning gold and silver as I do from Joe Schmoe on the street. In fact, only James Altucher was on the same page regarding silver. Now, I didn’t talk to THAT many people about it. But the lack of knowledge on the subject of those I did speak, was a bit disconcerting to me. These are very successful people, and to not even have considered their Wealth Confiscation seems irresponsible and/or naive. What about Cyprus? Poland? Or all of the other latest red flags around the world….
Consider that the troubles facing the United States are far larger and more globally reaching than these little canaries. Are the most connected and most successful businessmen and women among us really not prepared for what’s coming? They have never given even a thought to Wealth Confiscation?
There are people who really believe they can change the world. I include myself in that group even as I write from the humble abodes of the ‘not-quite-there-yet’ Procinctu. But if 25% of any one’s wealth is taken overnight, wouldn’t that limit their effectiveness? What is half was taken? 75% ? You get the picture. And the picture is starting to come into focus regarding Wealth Confiscation.
Canaries in the Mineshaft
It was only last March that Cyprus held a bank holiday. Subsequently, Laiki bank was closed, and the Bank of Cyprus was recapitalized. If you had an uninsured account totaling more than 100,000 Euros, say goodbye to a large chunk of your wealth. This was all for a ‘bail-out/bail-in’ of course. And what was the government’s loan requirement to address it’s deficit spending and the bailout…..only $10 billion Euros. Compare that to the almost 17 trillion USD debt. I’ll write it out so we know what it looks like… $16,743,920,719,890.75.
Then earlier this month, Poland announced it would transfer (confiscate) it’s citizen’s private pension fund bond holdings to the state. Roughly half of their life savings (if it’s in those funds) are to be nationalized! So here are just two of the most recent forms of Wealth Confiscation.
Same Old Story
The story is the same for every nation with this problem….TOO MUCH DEBT. So we see the United States’ large debt amount written above, but that doesn’t even include future obligations like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, etc. What’s that, hundreds of trillions? The only reason the U.S. has been able to blow the bubble larger and larger is because of it’s Global Reserve Currency Status and the Petrodollar.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has been performing quantitative easing for quite some time, like since 2008! That is, they are currently buying $85 billion dollars worth of bonds every month. What happens when they stop? Where will the banks ‘liquidity’ come from? Will the government ‘creatively’ force it’s citizens to buy the bonds instead? Will the whole economy come to a screeching halt? Will we see Wealth Confiscation in the name of patriotism?
These are questions we all need to ask ourselves. If your money is in an account, it is quite easy for it to be taken out Cypriot-Style. However, if you have your wealth in modern unconventional holdings, like gold and silver, you make it a bit more difficult for them to steal.
Gold and Silver
Physical gold and silver NEED to be an everyone’s portfolio, even if there wasn’t a threat of Wealth Confiscation. Understand that it’s not fool-proof, especially if you don’t diversify it internationally. They can even add an insanely high windfall tax on silver and gold if they want, BUT you can prepare for that too. Just know that you increase your chances of keeping your wealth if you have some gold and silver.
Again, it’s easy to confiscate a bank account’s holdings, it can be done from someone’s bed. But to confiscate physical gold and silver? They have to get out of bed, drive to their facility, strap on their riot gear, load all the guns, get gas, drive to your house, spray a bunch of bullets, etc. You see, it’s totally not worth the hassle. That can of course happen eventually, but it likely won’t be the first option in Wealth Confiscation. At least not when so many other people DID leave ALL their wealth in a bank and conventional ‘savings’ fund.
How much and when?
O.K. I didn’t put TOO much thought into this analogy, but hear me out. You are on a train. You can see the bridge is out ahead. You don’t know exactly how long until you make it to the bridge, but you know that you need to get ready to exit the train. However, you can’t jump just yet, because there are marauders chasing your train. You will need to time the jump between outrunning the marauders, and also getting off the train before it speeds off the cliff. So prepare now and jump when it is time for your best chance of survival.
Translation. Prepare now by putting a comfortable amount into physical gold and silver. Personally, I obviously put a larger percentage, but for beginners, 5-10% would be a good start. At least it’s much better than 0%. There may be one big final smack down in the ‘paper price’ of gold and silver before their actual value is finally realized. THAT is the time you are going to want to go all out for it. 20% or 25% of your wealth, even more if you are totally convinced. This will give you the best chance in fighting the battle life will present you and any Wealth Confiscation will be less likely to harm you. Again, nothing is certain, but probabilities need to be weighed.
This is already too long for a Thursday Thought, so I’m just going to wrap it up and say that if this Wealth Confiscation talk was mildly engaging, feel free reach out. You can send an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org and just say you would like to know more. This can be explained further, and there are also steps to take in not getting ripped off. You can also check out the money section of this website for information about the horrible fundamentals of the U.S. and global economies. The main point is, no matter how much you have saved, do you really want to lose your life’s savings because some politicians spend other people’s money beyond the means? If the answer is no, there are ways to protect yourself.
Before leaving, if you do happen to be a successful entrepreneur, and are looking to add value to others of your mindset, then check out Cadre to see if it suits you. It is predominantly based in Washington D.C., but you can decide for yourself if you want to inquire further.
We’ll finish with the closing from Zero Hedge…
“But best of all, in the aftermath of Cyprus, we now know what the two most recent European blueprints for preserving the myth of solvency are: bail-ins, which confiscate deposits, and pension fund “overhauls”, which confiscate, well, pension funds.
And now, back to the global recovery soap opera.”
If you think “It can’t happen here,” then I’ll be the one to bring you the bad news. It can happen here. In time, wealth confiscation probably will happen here. So, do you want your wealth, for which you worked so hard, to just be another character in the soap opera? Or do you want to create your own non-fiction with it? It’s up to you.
With God’s will..