Bitcoin into 2019 | $100,000 (and $300,000) Bitcoin is Coming

  • Posted September 24, 2018

As the last quarter of 2018 begins, what is a realistic price to expect for Bitcoin going into 2019, and why? The current price of Bitcoin is $6,652 …… but just how far away is $100,000? What about $300,000?!

In 2016, I published an article Bitcoin and Gold in 2017 | $10,000 Bitcoin is Coming. At the time, Bitcoin was only trading for $959, so the call for $10,000 seemed outlandish to many….just like $300,000 may seem outlandish today. Back then, it took 3 years for bitcoin to meet the territory of its previous all time high from 2013, and then another 11 months for bitcoin to go from $959 to $10,000.

$100,000 Bitcoin

Looking at the history of the price swings in Bitcoin, $100,000 is not that far away. Though in truth, neither is $3,000! Bitcoin is still regarded as ‘speculative’ by many, and there are a great number of people who have still never heard of it! Despite the advances and developments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, mass adoption has NOT yet been realized.

Again, avoiding the discussion of decentralized money, and all the risks and rewards of cryptocurrencies, this article is to serve as a price forecast, so we will begin with the same market capitalization breakdown as in the 2016 article. Let’s illustrate why $100,000 Bitcoin is coming.

$100,000 Bitcoin and Market Capitalization

Market capitalization is the total value of something. In the case of Bitcoin, the market cap is currently about $115.37 billion dollars.

This is calculated by taking the current total number of Bitcoins in existence 17,281,987 and multiplying it by the current price of $6,676. (note: Bitcoins will cease to be mined at 21 million, here you can track the market capitalization of all crypto currencies)

As Bitcoin is traded globally, (even though the current market cap dwarfs the $15.4 billion from 2016) $115.37 billion dollars is still not much at all. Consider that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) alone has a market cap of $1,051 billion dollars…and consider that there is nearly $90 trillion in global equities in general!

*note: Since 2016 article.. Bitcoin market cap has increased from $15.4 billion to $115.37 billion. 
Apple from $625 billion to to $1,051 billion. Global equities from around 70 trillion to 90 trillion.

 

$100,000 Bitcoin would equal a market cap of $1,728 billion dollars. That is still less than the combined size of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT). Those two companies combine for a market cap of $1,810 billion. We must also consider that those are companies, and Bitcoin has a potential as a global currency.

For another perspective, if Bitcoin market cap were to reach the level of capitalization as Apple is currently, one Bitcoin would be valued at $60,800.

Bitcoin’s all time high was $19,891 at the end of 2017. That price was achieved in spite of it still being an unproven commodity. We are still talking about a 10 year old currency, which challenges the modern day central banking system, in a world with a $135 trillion GDP!

Now you can see, it’s nothing at all to get Bitcoin to $100,000. It’s all a matter of sentiment and mass adoption, and there are developers and advocates working around the clock to ensure that very eventual mass adoption.

Another perspective, the United States Monetary base peaked in 2015 at $4,167 billion. For one bitcoin to be valued at $300,000, its market cap would be near $5,184 billion. Therefore, $300,000 is a reasonable eventual price if bitcoin were to gain equal footing with the US dollar and other global currencies. Then, you can really start to blow your mind if you contemplate it’s price if it were to gain dominance over the other global currencies. But first thing is first.

This section was to help you conceptualize the potential of value of Bitcoin. The eventual price of $100,000…$300,000…$1,000,000 for one bitcoin is not outlandish, but a very real possibility…and for many, it is an expectation.

And now….the real reason why you are here…. WHEN?

 

Bitcoin! When Moon, When Lambo?

There are those who unfortunately only buy into bitcoin manias to ride the rocket to the moon, to get rich quick, to buy lamborghinis….They make the price bubbles possible, and oftentimes are parted with their money. There are others who day trade cryptocurrencies as a stocktrader trades stocks. There are others who are true believers and “hodl” at any price, in hopes of an unimaginable wealth in the future. All of these groups of people must utilize the story told in the chart. And that is the story we will predict here.

I’m not ignorant of the fact that many have travelled down the ‘price prediction’ trap. It’s a dangerous territory putting one’s trustworthiness, credibility, and authority at risk. Also, consider these dates and prices as entertainment purposes. Don’t remortgage your house because you read on a blog that bitcoin would be worth $300,000 … you know? With that, here we go…

 

The first point to make is that bitcoin is a creature of habit. As you can see from the charts above, the bubble from 2017-2018 has an identical structure as does the bubble from 2013-2015. One major note is that bitcoin is moving almost twice as fast this time when compared to last time. The above chart is a weekly chart, and the current chart is a 4 day chart. IF we see a higher high in the very near future, I count the next bull run as being activated. If the higher high is delayed, this entire prediction will be off.

A few other things to look for… We should see price break through the 50 day moving average line, and we should see volume really pick up on a bullish move.

 

 

Another fact worth considering, is that the ‘bubble crash’ followed by a ‘cup and handle’ formation is not unique to bitcoin. This happens to many stocks as well. While some companies never recover from such a crash, others, like Amazon, soar exponentially. For example, after the dot com bubble in 1999, Amazon lost over 90% of its value, and bottomed at nearly $10 a share. Today, that $10 share is now valued at nearly $2,000!!

Again, current bitcoin price is moving even faster than Amazon. The Amazon chart is a 2 week chart, and the current bitcoin chart is a 4 day chart.

Now for the price predictions! Please take these as approximates. Bitcoin is so volatile, that I don’t pretend to KNOW what exactly is going to happen. This is merely my best guess based on previous bitcoin price movement…. here is what we get…

 

This current $6,000 – $7,000 price level is a great spot to accumulate in my opinion. Could there be a capitulation and a dump in price? Sure. But I would expect such a dip to be followed by a violent rip upwards in price. This is a great spot for long term positions considering the potential long-term prices.

The key potential prices and timelines:

  • End of 2018 – $10,000
  • New all-time high over $20,000 by July 2019
  • $100,000 level reached in December 2019
  • Bubble top up to $330,000 in December 2019
  • Crash down to near $100,000 accumulation in 2020
  • Wild card: next bubble top before 2022 near $5 million!

As before, when Bitcoin popularity grows, euphoria takes hold, prices skyrocket, then FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) is interjected, people will panic, the price will fall, there will be an accumulation period, then people eventually start using it again, then it’s popularity grows, euphoria takes over, and on goes the cycle….albeit with a new floor and support.

Regardless of how accurate these price predictions are, it is not a bad move to add Bitcoin to your cash and tangible assets. The potential of bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and blockchain is real. $100,000 Bitcoin is not that far away.

Lastly, here is an interview I gave in March 2018. This is the part of the interview in which we spoke of the future price of bitcoin…

How do I buy some? How can I trade it?

The easiest way for a beginner to buy bitcoin is through Coinbase. The link is my referral link. Upon buying or selling $100 worth of bitcoin, we both get $10 worth of bitcoin added to our accounts. Coinbase is FDIC insured for it’s cash deposits, and you set up your account much like you would a bank account. However, there is no branch you need to go to, you submit everything digitally. It’s fairly easy and a decent option for beginners.

To trade bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies), you first should be a competent trader with a trading plan! There are some exchanges which allow highly leveraged positions, with forced liquidations, and its just an all around bad recipe for beginners. That said, I personally use Kraken, Binance, Coinbase, and Bittrex.

If you need any help, feel free to reach out to me. I will help you free of charge as much as is reasonable. And if you need help setting up accounts or anything requiring more time, I’ll just ask for a nominal fee.

Also, I recommend Real Life Trading’s Crypto Course if you would like to start from scratch with a 5 video intro series to bitcoin, blockchain, and trading.

Conclusion

Heading into 2019, the Trump Rally may be nearing it’s end, and many emerging markets are already showing signs of a correction. As money flows out of equities, it very well may end up in cryptocurrencies.

Consider taking advantage of, or at least studying, the current opportunities in Bitcoin, other cryptos, and even the much maligned silver and gold. Oh, and instead of Lambos, may you be good stewards of your future crypto wealth. If you found this article helpful, or even entertaining, please consider throwing me a few satoshis. I don’t have nearly as many as I should, but that’s a topic for another article.

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Here are some useful tools:
Bitcoin Wallet – Coinbase
Bitcoin Charts
Real Life Trading Crypto Course

Crytpo Currency Market Capitalizations
Bitcoin real time flow

-Travis

JMJ – UIOGD

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