Archive for the ‘Federal Reserve’ Category
January 5th, 2017 by Vigilo
You must be paying attention to the history currently unfolding in crypto-currencies. In only 2 weeks, the total market capitalization of all crypto-currencies has jumped 50%!!
Many have heard of Bitcoin, but are unaware of the hundreds of other digital currencies like it. These currencies are traded on exchanges just like currencies of the world’s various central banks. As there is the dollar, euro, yuan, ruble, pound, etc. There is also Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero, Litecoin, Ripple, GlobalBoost, etc. However, these digital currencies are more like a commodity in the sense that there is a finite amount available, scarcity. Career politicians just can’t go and create more of them by the push of a button, but they are mined by various ‘computers’ through an algorithmic blockchain….and there is a set amount to be mined.
Market Capitalization of Crypto-Currencies
In this case, Market Capitalization can be understood as the total value, or total amount of dollars making up the shares of the crypto-currencies.
On December 4, 2013, there was $15.7 billion in Bitcoin and the other altcoins. On June 17, 2016, that high was tested and peaked at $14.9 billion before pulling back. Again, on December 22, 2016, the resistance was tested at $15.6 billion, and once broken, the market capitalization skyrocketed nearly 50% in just 2 weeks. As of January 5, 2017, there is $21.7 billion in crypto-currencies.
This is truly an amazing event unfolding before our eyes. Think of any stock or any other central bank currency….to grow 50% in 2 weeks, after living below an all-time resistance, is remarkable.
It was only a week ago when we published Bitcoin and Gold in 2017 | $10,000 Bitcoin is Coming. At the time, the price of Bitcoin was $959. As of this writing, it is now $1,164. That is a 21% rise in only 1 week! (also, in that article, an immediate $78 move higher in gold was referenced, and gold has risen $34 since.)
If you have not already, it is time to get at least some Bitcoin. Of course, we can’t know when the next regulation will come, trying to stifle the rise of Bitcoin. That $7 billion dollars added to crypto-currency market cap in the last 2 weeks can evaporate as quickly as it came, testing the old resistance as new support. Or, this move higher could still be in it’s beginning stages. In 2013, the price of Bitcoin rose 450% in only 1 month. If a similar move in unfolding, it’s not yet finished. Keeping an eye on the action from China will help this time around.
Take a minute to review the $10,000 Bitcoin is Coming article, and here are a few useful tools from it:
Bitcoin Exchanges – BTCe Bter
Crytpo Currency Market Capitalizations
Bitcoin real time flow
National Inflation Association
In God’s Will
December 28th, 2016 by Vigilo
In 2016, Bitcoin and gold have seen massive rallies. Gold stumbled hard in the last quarter of the year, but Bitcoin surged even higher, back up to it’s record levels from 3 years ago. The current price of Bitcoin is $959 …… but just how far away is $10,000?
Looking at the history of price swings in Bitcoin, $10,000 is not that far away, but in truth, neither is $200! Bitcoin by it’s very nature has huge swings in part because the general public still has not grasped the world changing reality of digital currency and the blockchain. It is still considered highly ‘speculative’.
I’m not going to get into all of the politics of decentralized money, nor the safety of deposits on hand in any one bank, nor the general pros and cons of Bitcoin. Simply, I want to illustrate why $10,000 Bitcoin is coming.
Let’s start with the market capitalization of Bitcoin. Market capitalization is the total value of something. In the case of Bitcoin, the market cap is currently at a record $15.4 billion dollars.
This is calculated by taking the current total number of Bitcoins in existence 16,068,750 and multiplying it by the current price of $959. (note: Bitcoins will cease to be mined at 21 million, here you can track the market capitalization of all crypto currencies)
As Bitcoin is globally traded, $15.4 billion dollars is not much at all. Consider that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) alone has a market cap of $625 billion dollars…and consider that there is over $60 trillion in equities in general!
$10,000 Bitcoin would equal a market cap of a mere $161 billion dollars. That is about the size of Pepsi (NYSE: PEP) or Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO).
In time, if Bitcoin were to reach the level of capitalization as Apple is currently, Bitcoin would be valued at $39,000.
We are talking about a relatively new (about 10 years old), but definitely up-and-coming global currency, in a world with a $120 trillion dollar GDP!
You see, it’s nothing at all to get Bitcoin to $10,000. It’s all a matter of sentiment, and right now the sentiment out of China is quite notable.
Bitcoin rises in China
Bitcoin’s latest push higher can be attributed to Chinese trading, as they have their own stock market concerns and yuan devaluations looming. China is a country of over 1.3 billion people, and their (PPP) GDP of over $20 trillion is the world’s largest!
Well, you can see Chinese Bitcoin inflows REAL TIME.
Truthfully, I don’t know if we will see the price at $500 again before we see $10,000. But I don’t really think it matters, unless you are a crypto currency day trader.
As Bitcoin popularity grows, euphoria takes hold, prices skyrocket, then governments will attempt to regulate Bitcoin use, people will panic, the price will fall, then people eventually start using it again, then it’s popularity grows, euphoria takes over, and on goes the cycle….albeit with a new floor and support.
Adding Bitcoin to your cash and tangible assets is not a bad move considering it’s potential. Crypto currencies and the blockchain are the future. $10,000 Bitcoin is not that far away.
While most of 2016 was bullish for gold, the price got smacked down pretty hard in the last quarter. But as it sits now, gold is oversold to the downside, and extremely undervalued.
Though the threat of deflation should always be minded, for this particular post, the short-term move for gold will be addressed.
Currently, Daily Sentiment Index for gold is at historical lows. Elliot wave cycles are at or near completion, and gold is poised for a rally. Further, the National Inflation Association has released their latest memo saying gold is “….due for an explosive short-term rally of $78 per oz!” See NIA lay out their algorithms why gold will rally in the short-term.
Heading into 2017, the Trump Rally may be nearing it’s end, and the global realities are coming back into focus.
Consider taking advantage of, or at least studying, the current opportunities in Bitcoin and Gold… may you prosper as $10,000 Bitcoin becomes one of those global realities.
In God’s will
February 29th, 2016 by Vigilo
Silver Manipulation 2016 seems to be at another make or break point. With the latest gush of commercial short sellers, you can expect a smack down in price. Then again, what if they fail? And how can we make money in the meantime?
Silver Manipulation 2016 – Short Position Spike
The commitment of traders for silver shows that there is a commercial net SHORT position of -73,677 contracts. The net short position has not been that high since the year 2008. It was followed by a 55% DECREASE in silver in 3 months, then followed by a 600% INCREASE in silver the next 2.5 years.
At this point, I don’t expect the same type of move, especially since there has already been a bear market for 5 years. But on a shorter term time frame, every time these shorting spikes show up, silver makes a LOWER LOW. It’s been the game during this whole bear market.
It’s no secret gold and silver are manipulated. GLD and SLV are ETF funds where ‘paper’ gold and silver are speculated and traded upon. However, actual physical gold and silver held within these ETFs, are only a tiny fraction of the amount traded. This allows for JP Morgan, HSBC, Scotiabank, and our bankster friends to put massive pressure on the price, simply by applying downward pressure via short selling.
The minuscule amount of contracts that are actually delivered in physical metal, allow the banksters to short without having to put up the metal. So every time the price of silver begins to rise, the commercial shorts go heavy shorting, thereby halting silver’s rise and bringing it to a lower low. The true value of gold and silver must be suppressed to keep the system afloat.
This charade will likely continue, until it can’t. Meaning, there will come a point where the price is lower than the cost to mine. That would result in a physical shortage as miners cut back on production. OR, the market overtakes the short sellers and the banksters don’t have the opportunity to cover their positions. OR, a geopolitical event forces a run on gold and silver and there won’t be enough available.
Any variation of these scenarios unveils the TRUTH. That paper speculating is NOT indicative of actual physical gold and silver. And the result will be one of the most epic in human history. Every time one of these massive shorting events happen, could be the last time for Silver Manipulation 2016.
In the meantime, can we ride the banksters coat tails during Silver Manipulation 2016? Can we share in their obscene profit when they give us the signal? I believe we can, and I’ll show you how.
Profiting on the Silver Manipulation 2016
First of all, only do this AFTER you have acquired physical gold and silver. These Silver Manipulation 2016 smack downs give an opportunity to lower the average cost in building your savings of physical metal. Once you have that taken care of, then you can profit on the PAPER manipulation, while taking possesion of the PHYSICAL metal.
A tactic I found that has worked for the last few years is this….
1. When the commercial net short position reaches a negative -55,000 contracts…. SHORT SILVER.
2. Once the short position begins to decrease, set your STOP at the high from the previous TWO weeks. (to be a bit more conservative, you can set the stop immediately, even before the shorts start to decrease, you would’ve been stopped out at the orange arrow with this variation)
3. Once you are stopped out, wait for the next build of short positions to over -55,000 contracts, then do it again!
This provides a way to kill some time and make some profit while we laboriously wait for the inevitable next Silver bull.
Another way to think of the commercial shorts is by using a truck as an example. Driving up a hill, the increase of shorts would be the pushing down of the gas pedal. But once the truck’s momentum reaches the top of the hill, or the point where pushing the gas pedal is no longer necessary, then you can coast and actually pick up speed going down the hill. With the shorts, the price typically drops once they begin REDUCING the shorts. It means they have reached the equilibrium of where the momentum of their shorting is enough to push the price lower, allowing them to cover their positions into a lower low.
As physical silver holders, we can make some profit until that inevitable time, when the truck drives off the road and crashes before making it to the bottom of the hill.
CAUTION: Always use a stop. while this is intended to lessen the personal blow of each Silver Manipulation 2016 smack down on our physical savings. We can’t be sure which time will be the last.
Let me know how this trade works for you. If you have one of your own, feel free to share it below.
In God’s will
disclosure: at the time of this writing, author is long physical silver, long intermediate SLV call options, and long short term SLV put options.
January 3rd, 2014 by Vigilo
Ahhhh (a relaxing ahhh), the STOCK MARKET TOP. It has always done quite a commendable job in making jackasses out of wanna-be-prophets, shills-on-TV, doomsayers, etc. But for one to gain immortal status in the prestigious “remember that time I called the stock market top” group, they only have to get it right once.
Calling the stock market top will give license to be wrong indefinitely, yet still get paid for an opinion. That is so modern American, eh?
Stock Market Top
I don’t pretend to know the ‘exact’ date of the stock market top. In fact, I’ve run a Crash 2013 series since August 2013. And guess what? No crash yet!
But like all other ‘prophets’, we gotta justify predictions and skew the timelines. For example, the distribution phase started in May 2013, which is technically the beginning of the crash, right? But you see….with Quantitative Easing, stimulus packages, antitrust evasions, debt ceiling, Obamacare, government shutdown, bank bailouts, bail-ins, free money, Illuminati, aliens, comets, Santa Claus, n’at……it’s tough being a prophet nowadays.
Though I will cut myself some slack. If you go back to the Crash 2013 launch, it was specifically said that 2013 was to include the Year of the Snake. ‘Crash 2013’ was used for SEO purposes, because really, how many people would do a Google search for “Crash in the Year of the Snake”? (while there are many variations, that exact phrase appears twice in internetdom)
So now that you know there will be no humble pie here until Jan 31st (if at all)……when exactly is the Stock Market Top?
Well according to McClellan Financial Publications…..really freaking soon! Like January 14 soon! Though in the article, the difficulties determining such a number are addressed. So we will say Jan 14, 2014, plus/minus 5 days.
Hey, that works for me. The Crash 2013 series would be validated, and I could at least associate with the “remember that time I called the stock market top” group. But enough rambling. Below is the article in it’s entirety. Take a trip over to their site and see what else McClellan has to offer. As for me, I’ll soon be preparing for Crash 2013 update #7…. yes, even though it’s January 2014.
With God’s Will.
November 29th, 2013 by Vigilo
Black Friday has blown into an international event, but before that, hopefully all of my American friends had a great Thanksgiving Day 2013. Whatever the reason, any time that we get to spend with family, should be cherished. Reality is that you never know when one’s health will wane, or when one’s life will end. Another reality is that a few of you had to work on Thanksgiving Day, and it’s follow-up of Black Friday. So instead of ignoring this reality, let’s take it at another angle.
No matter which country you currently reside, there is a way to be outside the system, spend more time with the family, AND participate in Black Friday…..and that is BITCOIN BLACK FRIDAY!
BITCOIN is a DECENTRALIZED, non-intrinsic, finite, crypto-currency.
- Decentralized – no central bank controls it (like a Federal Reserve).
- Non-intrinsic – you can not phsyically hold an actual bitcoin.
- Finite – there are only so many in existence, with total amount eventually reaching 21 million bitcoins
- Crypto-currency – it’s based on an algorithm with with mathematics, computer science, electrical engineering.
Recently, the US dollar value of 1 Bitcoin (BTC) multiplied by 6 times in November 2013! This due to an increase in demand, speculation, and an increase of merchants. Some of these merchants organized to have their own (2nd annual) Bitcoin Black Friday.
Bitcoin Black Friday
With Bitcoin Black Friday, you can avoid the insane, materialistic droves, yet still find a few deals for yourself. There is something wrong with people that will fight and kill over a TV or a doll. But there is nothing wrong with looking to save a few bucks for your family, whether those be priced in paper or bits.
If you have Bitcoins, check out the vendors participating in Bitcoin Black Friday. If you don’t, I encourage you to at least learn about Bitcoins. One place to start is the wiki page HERE….below are a few others.
(also, check out another boat at Litecoin)
BTC + TSU = $$$
The story of bitcoin is unprecedented in it’s possible global impact. But just imagine the 600% ROI in under a month. Then what if you could make that into a 1,200% or 2,000% ROI in a month? What if you could duplicate that success month after month? There MAY be a way.
BEFORE CONTINUING… I want to point out that you should NEVER play with more than you are willing to lose. Day Trading, especially Bitcoins, is risky and NOT for everyone. Personally, I believe an ideal setup would be to have an allotment of Bitcoins for saving, and another for trading. This can be similar to holding physical silver, yet trading options on its short term swings……
Instead of holding bitcoins through the tops and bottoms in the overall uptrend, what if you could tell with a certain probability WHEN the tops an bottoms would occur? What if there were indicators you could look for to determine these violent swings throughout a day? I would like to point out that my friends at TradeSmartU are having their own Black Friday Extravaganza.
Through Monday December 2nd, TSU is selling any 1 product at 10% off, any 2 products at 20% off, AND any 3 or more products at 30% off! These products present a responsible way to trade stocks and options in way mindful of risk mitigation. Using their course for something more risky, like trading BTC, is entirely up to the individual.
To view the free webinars and see just what each product offers, please visit the link below.
The classes and their pricing can be found HERE. The discounts apply at checkout.
By using a responsible system for regular stock chart analysis, could there be a way to combine Bitcoin and info from TradeSmartU to maximize your profit on this environment? It’s up to you to decide.
Standing on their own, Bitcoin and TradeSmartU can each be life changing tools for you. Remember that nothing is guaranteed, and hard work will be required. But at least familiarize yourself with these tools in this holiday season, especially ahead of Crash 2013.
With God’s Will
October 11th, 2013 by Vigilo
In my video update, I discuss many reasons why I have a bearish-neutral perspective on Gold in the very short term, and why I feel we should see Gold $1200 very soon. As stated in my previous update, the $1276 was a critical level that Gold needed to hold and bounce hard from if it wanted to sustain its intermediate uptrend, especially if it wanted to trade in the $1400 region. Days after my update, Gold did touch the $1276 level as expected, however, the bounce was not impressive and raised some red flags. I addressed these concerns on October 6, 2013 in the comment section under that video update on my Youtube Channel, Vinny1010.
On my recent Gold update video on October 10, 2013, I argue cases for both the Bullish & Bearish perspectives and leave it up to you to decide which one is the strongest. Though I clearly stated I have more of a bearish outlook on Gold in the shorter-term, I wanted to at least present both sides so you know exactly why I was leaning towards Gold $1200 (and/or $1179, the summer lows). I am sure you agree that being unbiased is extremely crucial in portraying an accurate analysis of any stock or commodity.
Bullish & Bearish Perspectives: Gold $1200 or will we see Gold $1400 again?
- Gold is still above $1276 level, which technically keeps the intermediate uptrend in-tact
- A larger Inverse Head & Shoulders as yet to be completed (This is a bullish chart pattern)
- Debt Ceiling fears & Government Shutdown issue
- A lot of resistance: 21, 50 & 100 Moving Averages among other key areas
- A downward trendline has been established, and it seems that Gold is having issues surpassing it
- Price action (i.e Candle patterns) are suggesting more selling-pressure than buying pressure.
- Descending Triangle Formation (Bearish chart pattern formation)
- Gold failed to rally on fears of Debt Ceiling concerns and Government Shutdown fears (unlike the past where it rallied pretty hard)
- The prior bounce off the $1276 critical level was very weak and raised red flags of buyers in the market
- Inverse Head & Shoulders completed on August 28, 2013 when Gold reached $1434
- Current price action is now trading under the Ichimoku Cloud suggesting the intermediate uptrend is questionable at this time.
As some of you may have realized, my Gold update was done on October 10, 2013 and the next following day (today), Gold just happened to pierce the critical level of $1276. This piercing opens the floodgates to more downward selling-pressure which will bring about Gold $1200 in the very shorter-term. Look to see Gold to go to $1250 area and then for Gold $1200 and/or $1179 to present itself soon.
GDX Gold Miner ETF Analysis
I also analyzed the Gold Miner ETF, GDX. Though Gold is in a bearish formation, GDX seems to be in a Falling Wedge formation, which is bullish for the miners. This does not mean that GDX will rise while Gold heads towards $1200, but that the downward pressure in the GDX miner will be limited compared to the past. I only advise trading GDX and other Gold Miners when you are experienced enough as they are very volatile. As a disclosure, I currently have Put Options on GDX and though the falling wedge is present, I am not convinced as of yet that it will yield very high price movements as the wedge is rather small.
In conclusion, look for Gold $1200 and GDX Gold Minersto go lower, bounce and then continue much lower as the weeks go by. For the very long term, I am very bullish on precious metals, however, in the shorter-term, it seems there is a lot of selling-pressure that will soon present itself. These volatile and high selling-pressures yield buying opportunities for precious metals investors. Please take advantage of this opportunity!
Finally, please be sure to visit my YouTube channel on a regular basis to check for market updates.