Archive for the ‘Federal Reserve’ Category
October 11th, 2013 by Vigilo
In my video update, I discuss many reasons why I have a bearish-neutral perspective on Gold in the very short term, and why I feel we should see Gold $1200 very soon. As stated in my previous update, the $1276 was a critical level that Gold needed to hold and bounce hard from if it wanted to sustain its intermediate uptrend, especially if it wanted to trade in the $1400 region. Days after my update, Gold did touch the $1276 level as expected, however, the bounce was not impressive and raised some red flags. I addressed these concerns on October 6, 2013 in the comment section under that video update on my Youtube Channel, Vinny1010.
On my recent Gold update video on October 10, 2013, I argue cases for both the Bullish & Bearish perspectives and leave it up to you to decide which one is the strongest. Though I clearly stated I have more of a bearish outlook on Gold in the shorter-term, I wanted to at least present both sides so you know exactly why I was leaning towards Gold $1200 (and/or $1179, the summer lows). I am sure you agree that being unbiased is extremely crucial in portraying an accurate analysis of any stock or commodity.
Bullish & Bearish Perspectives: Gold $1200 or will we see Gold $1400 again?
- Gold is still above $1276 level, which technically keeps the intermediate uptrend in-tact
- A larger Inverse Head & Shoulders as yet to be completed (This is a bullish chart pattern)
- Debt Ceiling fears & Government Shutdown issue
- A lot of resistance: 21, 50 & 100 Moving Averages among other key areas
- A downward trendline has been established, and it seems that Gold is having issues surpassing it
- Price action (i.e Candle patterns) are suggesting more selling-pressure than buying pressure.
- Descending Triangle Formation (Bearish chart pattern formation)
- Gold failed to rally on fears of Debt Ceiling concerns and Government Shutdown fears (unlike the past where it rallied pretty hard)
- The prior bounce off the $1276 critical level was very weak and raised red flags of buyers in the market
- Inverse Head & Shoulders completed on August 28, 2013 when Gold reached $1434
- Current price action is now trading under the Ichimoku Cloud suggesting the intermediate uptrend is questionable at this time.
As some of you may have realized, my Gold update was done on October 10, 2013 and the next following day (today), Gold just happened to pierce the critical level of $1276. This piercing opens the floodgates to more downward selling-pressure which will bring about Gold $1200 in the very shorter-term. Look to see Gold to go to $1250 area and then for Gold $1200 and/or $1179 to present itself soon.
GDX Gold Miner ETF Analysis
I also analyzed the Gold Miner ETF, GDX. Though Gold is in a bearish formation, GDX seems to be in a Falling Wedge formation, which is bullish for the miners. This does not mean that GDX will rise while Gold heads towards $1200, but that the downward pressure in the GDX miner will be limited compared to the past. I only advise trading GDX and other Gold Miners when you are experienced enough as they are very volatile. As a disclosure, I currently have Put Options on GDX and though the falling wedge is present, I am not convinced as of yet that it will yield very high price movements as the wedge is rather small.
In conclusion, look for Gold $1200 and GDX Gold Minersto go lower, bounce and then continue much lower as the weeks go by. For the very long term, I am very bullish on precious metals, however, in the shorter-term, it seems there is a lot of selling-pressure that will soon present itself. These volatile and high selling-pressures yield buying opportunities for precious metals investors. Please take advantage of this opportunity!
Finally, please be sure to visit my YouTube channel on a regular basis to check for market updates.
October 3rd, 2013 by Vigilo
This week’s Thursday Thought revolves around Wealth Confiscation and safeguarding one’s wealth. Obviously, it came to me while being in the company of people who have earned themselves wealth. But while this Thursday Thought has them in mind, it is really for everybody who has any type of savings or retirement plan.
This concern of Wealth Confiscation came while attending a Cadre event in Washington D.C. Cadre is a group of successful entrepreneurs who are more interested in HELPING and ADDING VALUE, then they are interested in throwing a sales pitch at a networking event. In fact, Cadre stands for Connecting Advocates. Deepening Relationships. Exclusively. So that pretty much sums it up.
At this particular event, we heard talks from James Altucher and Jay Baer. James has been mentioned on this site before regarding his book “Choose Yourself.” It’s about the ever changing world and why it’s time to Choose Yourself in this new era. And Jay authored a book titled “YOUtility,” which has to do with marketing using a ‘HELP’ mentality, as opposed to a ‘HYPE’ mentality. After they spoke, the Cadre members (and non-members) then gathered up on the balcony for an UN-networking event. There is where the Wealth Confiscation Thursday Thought was formed.
Those in the Cadre group are admittedly further along in the journey as am I. However, even there, I got the same bewilderment concerning gold and silver as I do from Joe Schmoe on the street. In fact, only James Altucher was on the same page regarding silver. Now, I didn’t talk to THAT many people about it. But the lack of knowledge on the subject of those I did speak, was a bit disconcerting to me. These are very successful people, and to not even have considered their Wealth Confiscation seems irresponsible and/or naive. What about Cyprus? Poland? Or all of the other latest red flags around the world….
Consider that the troubles facing the United States are far larger and more globally reaching than these little canaries. Are the most connected and most successful businessmen and women among us really not prepared for what’s coming? They have never given even a thought to Wealth Confiscation?
There are people who really believe they can change the world. I include myself in that group even as I write from the humble abodes of the ‘not-quite-there-yet’ Procinctu. But if 25% of any one’s wealth is taken overnight, wouldn’t that limit their effectiveness? What is half was taken? 75% ? You get the picture. And the picture is starting to come into focus regarding Wealth Confiscation.
Canaries in the Mineshaft
It was only last March that Cyprus held a bank holiday. Subsequently, Laiki bank was closed, and the Bank of Cyprus was recapitalized. If you had an uninsured account totaling more than 100,000 Euros, say goodbye to a large chunk of your wealth. This was all for a ‘bail-out/bail-in’ of course. And what was the government’s loan requirement to address it’s deficit spending and the bailout…..only $10 billion Euros. Compare that to the almost 17 trillion USD debt. I’ll write it out so we know what it looks like… $16,743,920,719,890.75.
Then earlier this month, Poland announced it would transfer (confiscate) it’s citizen’s private pension fund bond holdings to the state. Roughly half of their life savings (if it’s in those funds) are to be nationalized! So here are just two of the most recent forms of Wealth Confiscation.
Same Old Story
The story is the same for every nation with this problem….TOO MUCH DEBT. So we see the United States’ large debt amount written above, but that doesn’t even include future obligations like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, etc. What’s that, hundreds of trillions? The only reason the U.S. has been able to blow the bubble larger and larger is because of it’s Global Reserve Currency Status and the Petrodollar.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has been performing quantitative easing for quite some time, like since 2008! That is, they are currently buying $85 billion dollars worth of bonds every month. What happens when they stop? Where will the banks ‘liquidity’ come from? Will the government ‘creatively’ force it’s citizens to buy the bonds instead? Will the whole economy come to a screeching halt? Will we see Wealth Confiscation in the name of patriotism?
These are questions we all need to ask ourselves. If your money is in an account, it is quite easy for it to be taken out Cypriot-Style. However, if you have your wealth in modern unconventional holdings, like gold and silver, you make it a bit more difficult for them to steal.
Gold and Silver
Physical gold and silver NEED to be an everyone’s portfolio, even if there wasn’t a threat of Wealth Confiscation. Understand that it’s not fool-proof, especially if you don’t diversify it internationally. They can even add an insanely high windfall tax on silver and gold if they want, BUT you can prepare for that too. Just know that you increase your chances of keeping your wealth if you have some gold and silver.
Again, it’s easy to confiscate a bank account’s holdings, it can be done from someone’s bed. But to confiscate physical gold and silver? They have to get out of bed, drive to their facility, strap on their riot gear, load all the guns, get gas, drive to your house, spray a bunch of bullets, etc. You see, it’s totally not worth the hassle. That can of course happen eventually, but it likely won’t be the first option in Wealth Confiscation. At least not when so many other people DID leave ALL their wealth in a bank and conventional ‘savings’ fund.
How much and when?
O.K. I didn’t put TOO much thought into this analogy, but hear me out. You are on a train. You can see the bridge is out ahead. You don’t know exactly how long until you make it to the bridge, but you know that you need to get ready to exit the train. However, you can’t jump just yet, because there are marauders chasing your train. You will need to time the jump between outrunning the marauders, and also getting off the train before it speeds off the cliff. So prepare now and jump when it is time for your best chance of survival.
Translation. Prepare now by putting a comfortable amount into physical gold and silver. Personally, I obviously put a larger percentage, but for beginners, 5-10% would be a good start. At least it’s much better than 0%. There may be one big final smack down in the ‘paper price’ of gold and silver before their actual value is finally realized. THAT is the time you are going to want to go all out for it. 20% or 25% of your wealth, even more if you are totally convinced. This will give you the best chance in fighting the battle life will present you and any Wealth Confiscation will be less likely to harm you. Again, nothing is certain, but probabilities need to be weighed.
This is already too long for a Thursday Thought, so I’m just going to wrap it up and say that if this Wealth Confiscation talk was mildly engaging, feel free reach out. You can send an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org and just say you would like to know more. This can be explained further, and there are also steps to take in not getting ripped off. You can also check out the money section of this website for information about the horrible fundamentals of the U.S. and global economies. The main point is, no matter how much you have saved, do you really want to lose your life’s savings because some politicians spend other people’s money beyond the means? If the answer is no, there are ways to protect yourself.
Before leaving, if you do happen to be a successful entrepreneur, and are looking to add value to others of your mindset, then check out Cadre to see if it suits you. It is predominantly based in Washington D.C., but you can decide for yourself if you want to inquire further.
We’ll finish with the closing from Zero Hedge…
“But best of all, in the aftermath of Cyprus, we now know what the two most recent European blueprints for preserving the myth of solvency are: bail-ins, which confiscate deposits, and pension fund “overhauls”, which confiscate, well, pension funds.
And now, back to the global recovery soap opera.”
If you think “It can’t happen here,” then I’ll be the one to bring you the bad news. It can happen here. In time, wealth confiscation probably will happen here. So, do you want your wealth, for which you worked so hard, to just be another character in the soap opera? Or do you want to create your own non-fiction with it? It’s up to you.
With God’s will..
September 27th, 2013 by Vigilo
Quite a short update today. As you may know and as I stated in my previous video, the FOMC did not decide to taper its QE program this month. Once the markets heard the news, the metals rallied like never before. This was due mostly to the non-tapering statement by the Fed, and also because there was a long over-exaggerated bearish candle where traders felt the FOMC would taper this month. That candle broke the support of original channel. Shortly thereafter, the hope for Gold to see $1400 soon diminished as just two days later, a Fed Governor stated that the FOMC may taper in October 2013. Again, rhetoric from the Fed created panic in the stock markets, in particular, the metals market. Ever since then, Gold consolidation has remained.
Gold Consolidation is Not the Best Time to Trade
It is not smart to trade and guess the direction of where Gold is headed as the gold consolidation could fire to the upside or to the downside. If the gold consolidation fires south, look for 1300, 1280’s & 1275 area to bring support. 1275/76 is a key level for Gold to hold after it’s consolidation, as this is the 61.8% level of the current bullish trend. As long as Gold stays above this level, Gold’s intermediate bull run stays in-tact. Also, we want to make sure the bounce, aka momentum, from support is quite high to the upside; This will give us confirmation that the fire from the gold consolidation, though it may initially be down, is still going to keep this bull trend alive. However, if gold pierces below the 1275 area, then it will most likely not reach 1400’s, and we need to look for Bearish entries as the bullish trend has been broken.
Obviously, if price shoots up from the gold consolidation, then it does make it quite likely that Gold could see 1400’s. Should it fire north or bounce hard from any of the above support levels, we need to look to see if it can take out the 1380’s & the 1400 level. Only if it can stay above 1400 would we then expect Gold to “kiss” the 200 Day Moving Average around mid 1400’s.
Again, there are a different set of rules and a different mindset for those acquiring physical gold for the future. But for trading purposes, let’s wait and see where the price fires from the current gold consolidation. It would be nice to see Gold keep it’s intermediate bullish trend.
Hope it helps,
September 14th, 2013 by Vigilo
by Vinny – Will we see Gold 1500 & Silver 26?….Will we see another crash?….Or will we see all of the above?
In my previous video and Bipolar Gold article, I gave many reasons why I had a bullish-bias towards Gold and saw it going to the $1400 region. Not too long after my update, Gold went into the $1400 levels so that was very nice to see. Under the comment section of that video, I stated two targets that I felt would be likely: $1404 & $1441. The first target was hit, however, the second has yet to be hit. When traders give more than one targets, it suggests that the first target is always more conservative than the latter. I got $1441 target by doing a “Fibonacci Extension” from one “wave” and projecting it to give me an approximate end target for a future second wave.
Though I do not specialize in Elliot Wave and have very little practice with it, I do know that the “Wave A” should be proportionate to “Wave C” in a A-B-C Corrective Pattern. Many Elliot Wave Theorists believe Gold is in a current Wave C correction, and the question is how high will it go? Many, including myself, feel $1441 is a good approximate target, however, we all know that markets are never rational and it’s never a guarantee that this target will be hit. As the weeks go by, I will be carefully eyeing the metals to see if the momentum is still present for this upward move to possibly take us to Gold 1500.
Unexpected Selling Momentum on September 12, 2013
Parts of this video, unfortunately, may not be of some use. Hours after uploading my video on 9/11/13, Gold broke a major uptrend channel with a very large bearish candle; Gold practically moved nearly twice as much it usually does in one day! This candle may change things here. Due to the harsh sell off on 9/12/13, and assuming we do not get any good bounces within the next couple of trading days, I am expecting levels of $1275 or $1298 areas to be tested. While momentum builds against Gold 1500, we look for it to have a shot at the mid $1400’s, as initially expected. For that to happen, and the continuation of the upward channel, Gold would need to stay above $1298. If Gold does not bounce off of the $1298 level, but breaks down through it, then I will be questioning any upwards momentum. Gold 1500 and even the mid $1400’s will be rather unlikely.
Again, If we can bounce strongly from the $1298, then there can be a possibility of Gold doing a final rally towards $1400 and maybe even my initial second target of $1441. If we bounce, I will be looking for another upward channel of some sort to play out. If anything is fishy or suspect during the second rally, I will once again question the likelihood of Gold going into the mid $1400’s. At that point, Gold 1500 would have to wait until the future.
The above goes same with Silver. If Silver does not make another strong upward trend, then I will question any possibility of it testing the 200 day moving average, let alone its recent highs as discussed in my update.
Long Term Bearish Targets
I presented various bearish targets on Gold and Silver for you to consider should the metals pierce their recent lows. As stated above, because targets are quite a mystery, traders often give numerous targets for consideration. Obviously, the closest target offers less risk and less profits, while targets farther out offer high risk and high profits (as there is no guarantee the farther target will be triggered). The targets are there for you to consider and decide if you want to purchase physical metal at those levels. Personally, I strongly believe that if those lows are taken out, the metals have a good chance to testing their 200MA (at least once) on the Monthly Chart. MA’s act like magnets, and I believe this will be the case here as well.
Just to be clear, targets do not necessarily mean bottoms. They are just merely areas to consider taking profits, reducing your position size and/or in this case, the contemplation of buying ‘value’. Many may disagree with those targets I presented, and that is fine. However, I feel I must be objective as possible should the lows be breached. If the lows are not breached, and we get a very powerful bounce, I would still have to see Gold go over $1533 & Silver above $26.10 to even consider that we are no longer in a bear-market.
[editors’ note] Whether we see Gold 1500 or not, this data is for trading gold and silver in the short term. By analyzing the charts, we can also use this information to accumulate physical gold and silver at bargain entry prices. For those who pay attention, Gold and Silver will yet provide the opportunity of a lifetime. That said, if you have none, please do acquire some physical metal now. But if you already have some, we believe that ‘really long term’ opportunity has not presented itself just yet. In the meantime, we can still profit from gold and silver no matter which way the market is trending.[-T]
The saying goes “the trend is your friend until the very end.” The larger long term bearish trend for gold and silver is still intact. The short term bullish trend is currently in question. Since the original upward channel broke, it’s now time to sit back, figure out what Gold wants to do, and re-analyze from there. Please visit my channel for updates.
Hope it helps,
August 11th, 2013 by Vigilo
August 9th, 2013 by Vigilo
Though the overall trend of Gold on the daily chart is Bearish, I currently have a Bullish bias in regards to the precious metals’ price action. All things considered, the metal can affectionately be referred to as “Bipolar Gold.” Bipolar disorder is a mood disorder where individuals experience episodes of a frenzied mood known as mania, alternating with episodes of depression. And there is little warning of a shift from one mood to the next. That sounds a lot like gold’s behavior, doesn’t it? If you suspect you, or anyone you know, may suffer from bipolar disorder, check out some self-help strategies, and books on the subject. But now, on to Bipolar Gold. Read the rest of this entry »