Archive for the ‘Federal Reserve’ Category

Silver Manipulation 2016 seems to be at another make or break point. With the latest gush of commercial short sellers, you can expect a smack down in price. Then again, what if they fail? And how can we make money in the meantime?

Silver Manipulation 2016 – Short Position Spike

The commitment of traders for silver shows that there is a commercial net SHORT position of -73,677 contracts. The net short position has not been that high since the year 2008. It was followed by a 55% DECREASE in silver in 3 months, then followed by a 600% INCREASE in silver the next 2.5 years.

At this point, I don’t expect the same type of move, especially since there has already been a bear market for 5 years. But on a shorter term time frame, every time these shorting spikes show up, silver makes a LOWER LOW. It’s been the game during this whole bear market.

It’s no secret gold and silver are manipulated. GLD and SLV are ETF funds where ‘paper’ gold and silver are speculated and traded upon. However, actual physical gold and silver held within these ETFs, are only a tiny fraction of the amount traded. This allows for JP Morgan, HSBC, Scotiabank, and our bankster friends to put massive pressure on the price, simply by applying downward pressure via short selling.

The minuscule amount of contracts that are actually delivered in physical metal, allow the banksters to short without having to put up the metal. So every time the price of silver begins to rise, the commercial shorts go heavy shorting, thereby halting silver’s rise and bringing it to a lower low. The true value of gold and silver must be suppressed to keep the system afloat.

This charade will likely continue, until it can’t. Meaning, there will come a point where the price is lower than the cost to mine. That would result in a physical shortage as miners cut back on production. OR, the market overtakes the short sellers and the banksters don’t have the opportunity to cover their positions. OR, a geopolitical event forces a run on gold and silver and there won’t be enough available.

Any variation of these scenarios unveils the TRUTH. That paper speculating is NOT indicative of actual physical gold and silver. And the result will be one of the most epic in human history. Every time one of these massive shorting events happen, could be the last time for Silver Manipulation 2016.

In the meantime, can we ride the banksters coat tails during Silver Manipulation 2016? Can we share in their obscene profit when they give us the signal? I believe we can, and I’ll show you how.

 

Profiting on the Silver Manipulation 2016

Silver manipulation 2016 Commitment of Traders

First of all, only do this AFTER you have acquired physical gold and silver. These Silver Manipulation 2016 smack downs give an opportunity to lower the average cost in building your savings of physical metal. Once you have that taken care of, then you can profit on the PAPER manipulation, while taking possesion of the PHYSICAL metal.

A tactic I found that has worked for the last few years is this….

 

1. When the commercial net short position reaches a negative -55,000 contracts…. SHORT SILVER.

2. Once the short position begins to decrease, set your STOP at the high from the previous TWO weeks. (to be a bit more conservative, you can set the stop immediately, even before the shorts start to decrease, you would’ve been stopped out at the orange arrow with this variation)

3. Once you are stopped out, wait for the next build of short positions to over -55,000 contracts, then do it again!
This provides a way to kill some time and make some profit while we laboriously wait for the inevitable next Silver bull.

 

Another way to think of the commercial shorts is by using a truck as an example. Driving up a hill, the increase of shorts would be the pushing down of the gas pedal. But once the truck’s momentum reaches the top of the hill, or the point where pushing the gas pedal is no longer necessary, then you can coast and actually pick up speed going down the hill. With the shorts, the price typically drops once they begin REDUCING the shorts. It means they have reached the equilibrium of where the momentum of their shorting is enough to push the price lower, allowing them to cover their positions into a lower low.

As physical silver holders, we can make some profit until that inevitable time, when the truck drives off the road and crashes before making it to the bottom of the hill.

CAUTION: Always use a stop. while this is intended to lessen the personal blow of each Silver Manipulation 2016 smack down on our physical savings. We can’t be sure which time will be the last.

Let me know how this trade works for you. If you have one of your own, feel free to share it below.

In God’s will

-Travis

disclosure: at the time of this writing, author is long physical silver, long intermediate SLV call options, and long short term SLV put options.

The Stock Market Top will occur on……..

January 3rd, 2014 by Vigilo

Ahhhh (a relaxing ahhh), the STOCK MARKET TOP. It has always done quite a commendable job in making jackasses out of wanna-be-prophets, shills-on-TV, doomsayers, etc. But for one to gain immortal status in the prestigious “remember that time I called the stock market top” group, they only have to get it right once.

Calling the stock market top will give license to be wrong indefinitely, yet still get paid for an opinion. That is so modern American, eh?

Stock Market Top

I don’t pretend to know the ‘exact’ date of the stock market top. In fact, I’ve run a Crash 2013 series since August 2013. And guess what? No crash yet!

But like all other ‘prophets’, we gotta justify predictions and skew the timelines. For example, the distribution phase started in May 2013, which is technically the beginning of the crash, right? But you see….with Quantitative Easing, stimulus packages, antitrust evasions, debt ceiling, Obamacare, government shutdown, bank bailouts, bail-ins, free money, Illuminati, aliens, comets, Santa Claus,  n’at……it’s tough being a prophet nowadays.

Though I will cut myself some slack. If you go back to the Crash 2013 launch, it was specifically said that 2013 was to include the Year of the Snake.  ‘Crash 2013’ was used for SEO purposes, because really, how many people would do a Google search for “Crash in the Year of the Snake”? (while there are many variations, that exact phrase appears twice in internetdom)

So now that you know there will be no humble pie here until Jan 31st (if at all)……when exactly is the Stock Market Top?

1929analogV2 | The Stock Market Top will occur on........Well according to McClellan Financial Publications…..really freaking soon! Like January 14 soon! Though in the article, the difficulties determining such a number are addressed. So we will say Jan 14, 2014, plus/minus  5 days.

Hey, that works for me. The Crash 2013 series would be validated, and I could at least associate with the “remember that time I called the stock market top” group. But enough rambling. Below is the article in it’s entirety. Take a trip over to their site and see what else McClellan has to offer. As for me, I’ll soon be preparing for Crash 2013 update #7…. yes, even though it’s January 2014.

With God’s Will.

T

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Bitcoin Black Friday + TradeSmartU = $$$

November 29th, 2013 by Vigilo

Black Friday has blown into an international event, but before that, hopefully all of my American friends had a great Thanksgiving Day 2013. Whatever the reason, any time that we get to spend with family, should be cherished. Reality is that you never know when one’s health will wane, or when one’s life will end. Another reality is that a few of you had to work on Thanksgiving Day, and it’s follow-up of Black Friday. So instead of ignoring this reality, let’s take it at another angle.

No matter which country you currently reside, there is a way to be outside the system, spend more time with the family, AND participate in Black Friday…..and that is BITCOIN BLACK FRIDAY!

Bitcoin Black Friday + TradeSmartU = $$$

 

BITCOIN is a DECENTRALIZED, non-intrinsic, finite, crypto-currency.

  • Decentralized – no central bank controls it (like a Federal Reserve).
  • Non-intrinsic – you can not phsyically hold an actual bitcoin.
  • Finite – there are only so many in existence, with total amount eventually reaching 21 million bitcoins
  • Crypto-currency – it’s based on an algorithm with with mathematics, computer science, electrical engineering.

Recently, the US dollar value of 1 Bitcoin (BTC) multiplied by 6 times in November 2013! This due to an increase in demand, speculation, and an increase of merchants. Some of these merchants organized to have their own (2nd annual) Bitcoin Black Friday.

Bitcoin Black Friday

With Bitcoin Black Friday, you can avoid the insane, materialistic droves, yet still find a few deals for yourself. There is something wrong with people that will fight and kill over a TV or a doll. But there is nothing wrong with looking to save a few bucks for your family, whether those be priced in paper or bits.

If you have Bitcoins, check out the vendors participating in Bitcoin Black Friday. If you don’t, I encourage you to at least learn about Bitcoins. One place to start is the wiki page HERE….below are a few others.

(also, check out another boat at Litecoin)

chart | Bitcoin Black Friday + TradeSmartU = $$$

BTC + TSU = $$$

The story of bitcoin is unprecedented in it’s possible global impact. But just imagine the 600% ROI in under a month. Then what if you could make that into a 1,200% or 2,000% ROI in a month? What if you could duplicate that success month after month? There MAY be a way.

BEFORE CONTINUING… I want to point out that you should NEVER play with more than you are willing to lose. Day Trading, especially Bitcoins, is risky and NOT for everyone. Personally, I believe an ideal setup would be to have an allotment of Bitcoins for saving, and another for trading. This can be similar to holding physical silver, yet trading options on its short term swings……

Instead of holding bitcoins through the tops and bottoms in the overall uptrend, what if you could tell with a certain probability WHEN the tops an bottoms would occur? What if there were indicators you could look for to determine these violent swings throughout a day? I would like to point out that my friends at TradeSmartU are having their own Black Friday Extravaganza.

Through Monday December 2nd, TSU is selling any 1 product at 10% off, any 2 products at 20% off, AND any 3 or more products at 30% off! These products present a responsible way to trade stocks and options in way mindful of risk mitigation. Using their course for something more risky, like trading BTC, is entirely up to the individual.

To view the free webinars and see just what each product offers, please visit the link below.

http://www.tradesmartu.com/blackfriday.php

The classes and their pricing can be found HEREThe discounts apply at checkout.

By using a responsible system for regular stock chart analysis, could there be a way to combine Bitcoin and info from TradeSmartU to maximize your profit on this environment? It’s up to you to decide.

 

Closing Bell

bitcoin qr | Bitcoin Black Friday + TradeSmartU = $$$Standing on their own, Bitcoin and TradeSmartU can each be life changing tools for you. Remember that nothing is guaranteed, and hard work will be required. But at least familiarize yourself with these tools in this holiday season, especially ahead of Crash 2013.

Take advantage of Bitcoin Black Friday and the TSU Extravaganza….and enjoy the time with your family.

With God’s Will

T

 

GDX & Gold $1200 Target Breakout

October 11th, 2013 by Vigilo

In my video update, I discuss many reasons why I have a bearish-neutral perspective on Gold in the very short term, and why I feel we should see Gold $1200 very soon. As stated in my previous update, the $1276 was a critical level that Gold needed to hold and bounce hard from if it wanted to sustain its intermediate uptrend, especially if it wanted to trade in the $1400 region. Days after my update, Gold did touch the $1276 level as expected, however, the bounce was not impressive and raised some red flags. I addressed these concerns on October 6, 2013 in the comment section under that video update on my Youtube Channel, Vinny1010.

On my recent Gold update video on October 10, 2013, I argue cases for both the Bullish & Bearish perspectives and leave it up to you to decide which one is the strongest. Though I clearly stated I have more of a bearish outlook on Gold in the shorter-term, I wanted to at least present both sides so you know exactly why I was leaning towards Gold $1200 (and/or $1179, the summer lows). I am sure you agree that being unbiased is extremely crucial in portraying an accurate analysis of any stock or commodity.

Bullish & Bearish Perspectives: Gold $1200 or will we see Gold $1400 again?

Bullish

  1. Gold is still above $1276 level, which technically keeps the intermediate uptrend in-tact
  2. A larger Inverse Head & Shoulders as yet to be completed (This is a bullish chart pattern)
  3. Debt Ceiling fears & Government Shutdown issue

Bearish

  1. A lot of resistance: 21, 50 & 100 Moving Averages among other key areas
  2. A downward trendline has been established, and it seems that Gold is having issues surpassing it
  3. Price action (i.e Candle patterns) are suggesting more selling-pressure than buying pressure.
  4. Descending Triangle Formation (Bearish chart pattern formation)
  5. Gold failed to rally on fears of Debt Ceiling concerns and Government Shutdown fears (unlike the past where it rallied pretty hard)
  6. The prior bounce off the $1276 critical level was very weak and raised red flags of buyers in the market
  7. Inverse Head & Shoulders completed on August 28, 2013 when Gold reached $1434
  8. Current price action is now trading under the Ichimoku Cloud suggesting the intermediate uptrend is questionable at this time.

As some of you may have realized, my Gold update was done on October 10, 2013 and the next following day (today), Gold just happened to pierce the critical level of $1276. This piercing opens the floodgates to more downward selling-pressure which will bring about Gold $1200 in the very shorter-term. Look to see Gold to go to $1250 area and then for Gold $1200 and/or $1179 to present itself soon.

GDX Gold Miner ETF Analysis

GDX miners | GDX & Gold $1200 Target BreakoutI also analyzed the Gold Miner ETF, GDX. Though Gold is in a bearish formation, GDX seems to be in a Falling Wedge formation, which is bullish for the miners. This does not mean that GDX will rise while Gold heads towards $1200, but that the downward pressure in the GDX miner will be limited compared to the past. I only advise trading GDX and other Gold Miners when you are experienced enough as they are very volatile. As a disclosure, I currently have Put Options on GDX and though the falling wedge is present, I am not convinced as of yet that it will yield very high price movements as the wedge is rather small.

In conclusion, look for Gold $1200 and GDX Gold Minersto go lower, bounce and then continue much lower as the weeks go by. For the very long term, I am very bullish on precious metals, however, in the shorter-term, it seems there is a lot of selling-pressure that will soon present itself. These volatile and high selling-pressures yield buying opportunities for precious metals investors. Please take advantage of this opportunity!

Finally, please be sure to visit my YouTube channel on a regular basis to check for market updates.

Thanks,
Vinny

This week’s Thursday Thought revolves around Wealth Confiscation and safeguarding one’s wealth. Obviously, it came to me while being in the company of people who have earned themselves wealth. But while this Thursday Thought has them in mind, it is really for everybody who has any type of savings or retirement plan.

This concern of Wealth Confiscation came while attending a Cadre event in Washington D.C. Cadre is a group of successful entrepreneurs who are more interested in HELPING and ADDING VALUE, then they are interested in throwing a sales pitch at a networking event. In fact, Cadre stands for Connecting Advocates. Deepening Relationships. Exclusively. So that pretty much sums it up.

At this particular event, we heard talks from James Altucher and Jay Baer. James has been mentioned on this site before regarding his book “Choose Yourself.” It’s about the ever changing world and why it’s time to Choose Yourself in this new era. And Jay authored a book titled “YOUtility,” which has to do with marketing using a ‘HELP’ mentality, as opposed to a ‘HYPE’ mentality. After they spoke, the Cadre members (and non-members) then gathered up on the balcony for an UN-networking event. There is where the Wealth Confiscation Thursday Thought was formed.

Wealth Confiscation

who is next span italy u.s | Wealth Confiscation....Conspiracy or Reality? | Thursday ThoughtThose in the Cadre group are admittedly further along in the journey as am I. However, even there, I got the same bewilderment concerning gold and silver as I do from Joe Schmoe on the street. In fact, only James Altucher was on the same page regarding silver. Now, I didn’t talk to THAT many people about it. But the lack of knowledge on the subject of those I did speak, was a bit disconcerting to me. These are very successful people, and to not even have considered their Wealth Confiscation seems irresponsible and/or naive. What about Cyprus? Poland? Or all of the other latest red flags around the world….

Consider that the troubles facing the United States are far larger and more globally reaching than these little canaries. Are the most connected and most successful businessmen and women among us really not prepared for what’s coming? They have never given even a thought to Wealth Confiscation?

There are people who really believe they can change the world. I include myself in that group even as I write from the humble abodes of the ‘not-quite-there-yet’ Procinctu. But if 25% of any one’s wealth is taken overnight, wouldn’t that limit their effectiveness? What is half was taken? 75% ? You get the picture. And the picture is starting to come into focus regarding Wealth Confiscation.

Canaries in the Mineshaft

hands off cyprus | Wealth Confiscation....Conspiracy or Reality? | Thursday ThoughtIt was only last March that Cyprus held a bank holiday. Subsequently, Laiki bank was closed, and the Bank of Cyprus was recapitalized. If you had an uninsured account totaling more than 100,000 Euros, say goodbye to a large chunk of your wealth. This was all for a ‘bail-out/bail-in’ of course. And what was the government’s loan requirement to address it’s deficit spending and the bailout…..only $10 billion Euros. Compare that to the almost 17 trillion USD debt. I’ll write it out so we know what it looks like… $16,743,920,719,890.75.

Then earlier this month, Poland announced it would transfer (confiscate) it’s citizen’s private pension fund bond holdings to the state. Roughly half of their life savings (if it’s in those funds) are to be nationalized! So here are just two of the most recent forms of Wealth Confiscation.

Same Old Story

The story is the same for every nation with this problem….TOO MUCH DEBT. So we see the United States’ large debt amount written above, but that doesn’t even include future obligations like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, etc. What’s that, hundreds of trillions? The only reason the U.S. has been able to blow the bubble larger and larger is because of it’s Global Reserve Currency Status and the Petrodollar.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has been performing quantitative easing for quite some time, like since 2008! That is, they are currently buying $85 billion dollars worth of bonds every month. What happens when they stop? Where will the banks ‘liquidity’ come from? Will the government ‘creatively’ force it’s citizens to buy the bonds instead? Will the whole economy come to a screeching halt? Will we see Wealth Confiscation in the name of patriotism?

These are questions we all need to ask ourselves. If your money is in an account, it is quite easy for it to be taken out Cypriot-Style. However, if you have your wealth in modern unconventional holdings, like gold and silver, you make it a bit more difficult for them to steal.

Gold and Silver

Physical gold and silver NEED to be an everyone’s portfolio, even if there wasn’t a threat of Wealth Confiscation. Understand that it’s not fool-proof, especially if you don’t diversify it internationally. They can even add an insanely high windfall tax on silver and gold if they want, BUT you can prepare for that too. Just know that you increase your chances of keeping your wealth if you have some gold and silver.

Again, it’s easy to confiscate a bank account’s holdings, it can be done from someone’s bed. But to confiscate physical gold and silver? They have to get out of bed, drive to their facility, strap on their riot gear, load all the guns, get gas, drive to your house, spray a bunch of bullets, etc. You see, it’s totally not worth the hassle. That can of course happen eventually, but it likely won’t be the first option in Wealth Confiscation. At least not when so many other people DID leave ALL their wealth in a bank and conventional ‘savings’ fund.

How much and when?

O.K. I didn’t put TOO much thought into this analogy, but hear me out. You are on a train. You can see the bridge is out ahead. You don’t know exactly how long until you make it to the bridge, but you know that you need to get ready to exit the train. However, you can’t jump just yet, because there are marauders chasing your train. You will need to time the jump between outrunning the marauders, and also getting off the train before it speeds off the cliff. So prepare now and jump when it is time for your best chance of survival.

Translation. Prepare now by putting a comfortable amount into physical gold and silver. Personally, I obviously put a larger percentage, but for beginners, 5-10% would be a good start. At least it’s much better than 0%. There may be one big final smack down in the ‘paper price’ of gold and silver before their actual value is finally realized. THAT is the time you are going to want to go all out for it. 20% or 25% of your wealth, even more if you are totally convinced. This will give you the best chance in fighting the battle life will present you and any Wealth Confiscation will be less likely to harm you. Again, nothing is certain, but probabilities need to be weighed.

Wrap-Up

This is already too long for a Thursday Thought, so I’m just going to wrap it up and say that if this Wealth Confiscation talk was mildly engaging, feel free reach out. You can send an e-mail to vigilo@procinctu.info and just say you would like to know more. This can be explained further, and there are also steps to take in not getting ripped off. You can also check out the money section of this website for information about the horrible fundamentals of the U.S. and global economies. The main point is, no matter how much you have saved, do you really want to lose your life’s savings because some politicians spend other people’s money beyond the means? If the answer is no, there are ways to protect yourself.

Before leaving, if you do happen to be a successful entrepreneur, and are looking to add value to others of your mindset, then check out Cadre to see if it suits you. It is predominantly based in Washington D.C., but you can decide for yourself if you want to inquire further.

We’ll finish with the closing from Zero Hedge

“But best of all, in the aftermath of Cyprus, we now know what the two most recent European blueprints for preserving the myth of solvency are: bail-ins, which confiscate deposits, and pension fund “overhauls”, which confiscate, well, pension funds.

And now, back to the global recovery soap opera.”

If you think “It can’t happen here,” then I’ll be the one to bring you the bad news. It can happen here. In time, wealth confiscation probably will happen here. So, do you want your wealth, for which you worked so hard, to just be another character in the soap opera? Or do you want to create your own non-fiction with it? It’s up to you.

With God’s will..

-T

Quite a short update today. As you may know and as I stated in my previous video, the FOMC did not decide to taper its QE program this month. Once the markets heard the news, the metals rallied like never before. This was due mostly to the non-tapering statement by the Fed, and also because there was a long over-exaggerated bearish candle where traders felt the FOMC would taper this month. That candle broke the support of original channel. Shortly thereafter, the hope for Gold to see $1400 soon diminished as just two days later, a Fed Governor stated that the FOMC may taper in October 2013. Again, rhetoric from the Fed created panic in the stock markets, in particular, the metals market. Ever since then, Gold consolidation has remained.

Gold Consolidation is Not the Best Time to Trade

gold consolidation | Gold Consolidation Following The Fed's Continued QEIt is not smart to trade and guess the direction of where Gold is headed as the gold consolidation could fire to the upside or to the downside. If the gold consolidation fires south, look for 1300, 1280’s & 1275 area to bring support. 1275/76 is a key level for Gold to hold after it’s consolidation, as this is the 61.8% level of the current bullish trend. As long as Gold stays above this level, Gold’s intermediate bull run stays in-tact. Also, we want to make sure the bounce, aka momentum, from support is quite high to the upside; This will give us confirmation that the fire from the gold consolidation, though it may initially be down, is still going to keep this bull trend alive. However, if gold pierces below the 1275 area, then it will most likely not reach 1400’s, and we need to look for Bearish entries as the bullish trend has been broken.

Obviously, if price shoots up from the gold consolidation, then it does make it quite likely that Gold could see 1400’s. Should it fire north or bounce hard from any of the above support levels, we need to look to see if it can take out the 1380’s & the 1400 level. Only if it can stay above 1400 would we then expect Gold to “kiss” the 200 Day Moving Average around mid 1400’s.

Again, there are a different set of rules and a different mindset for those acquiring physical gold for the future. But for trading purposes, let’s wait and see where the price fires from the current gold consolidation. It would be nice to see Gold keep it’s intermediate bullish trend.

Hope it helps,

Vinny