Archive for the ‘Government’ Category
March 20th, 2014 by Iliya
Preface: I'd like to use this post as an addendum to the Ukraine 101 article. So many times we see foreign interventions starting up revolutions. Ukraine during 2013, and into 2014 is no exception. There may be a large quantity of people who legitimately want change, but ultimately, somebody else is paying for it....and they expect a hefty return on their investment, no matter what befalls the people. -Travis
So the Russian revolution was planned and paid by hostile foreign powers, for no other purpose than economic colonization. That is what the newly released information shows, quite clearly.
Through the prism of this new insight, I am now seeing familiar, accepted and “boring” aspects of history in a totally new light.
In essence, I don’t believe that there can be such a thing as a revolution – an uprising of the people which succeeds in overthrowing an unpopular regime. I can only think of one event that possibly answers that description in four thousand years of recorded history.
Occasionally, rebels succeed in weakening an unpopular monarch, extracting some concessions or simply dying a more worthy death than their lives otherwise allowed. Very rarely did a rebellion result in a regime change – a coup precipitated by an inadequate response to the uprising or a foreign invasion. History records many events we know as rebellions. This is a populist uprising, possibly against a hostile foreign power – usually out of desperation, with little chance of an actual overthrow. The only likely outcome is a brutal suppression with reprisals – a major negative sum gain.
This is because a rebellion by the genuine population (as opposed to a faction of the ruling class backed by some of the armed forces) has very few chances of success. It’s a very unequal battle because the rebels lack the resources and the organization of the state. Forming such structures on the run is an unlikely recipe for success – the usual rule is that the government destroys the rebels first.
There is a high personal cost for participating in a rebellion. As one’s activities are usually well-known in the parish, the former rebel and his family has to run. Their fate is unenviable – migration to a frontier society, subsistence in a difficult terrain that is difficult to police, or life on the fringe of society as an outlaw or a mercenary.
For that reason most rebellions were little more than desperate riots that managed to form up into a military force capable of surviving a few initial engagements. Once the government forces were marshalled in earnest, the rebellion was doomed.
Such was the case in medieval Europe, where kings were not only entrenched in power, but also had the backing of the church. Most of them were safe from any anger of the common man, fearing only those who had a credible power base, such as relatives and military commanders.
Then came along the Reformation.
All of a sudden each nation in Western Europe had leaders with two mutually exclusive sources of legitimacy – Catholics and Protestants. For the next century the region was riven by brutal civil wars, which resulted in few compromises – most fights between the two confessions were to the death.
It was the first era when war could be waged by unconventional means. Instead of sending your own army to bleed and freeze in another country, you could support a side in a civil war. That opened vast new possibilities – very little money went a very long way. You only needed to pay a few provocateurs, smuggle arms and throw around a little money – a tiny percentage of what it would cost to keep a regular army yourself. The Russian revolutions of 1905 and 1917 only cost the German crown a few million marks – a pittance compared with the costs of fighting the Russian army.
Crucially, your state organization could be lent to the rebels of another nation, assisting them with major logistics (for instance, sea transport), expertise they could not attract to their cause (military advisers, for instance) and refuge in your own country – a more dangerous strategy, but one that worked well enough even in the twentieth century. All of a sudden a government fighting sponsored rebels was up against the resources of a fellow state, and that changed the equation entirely.
Furthermore, you could modulate your effort to suit the circumstances. You could feed the rebellion at full throttle, to a final victory. Or you could trickle the support, pleading a lack of resources, to result in a prolonged exsanguination of the entire target state. The worst example of this strategy is the Russian civil war of 1918-1923.
Not only that, but a rebellion may be multi-faction, and you may choose the faction(s) you support to suit your means. China did this in Cambodia for two decades preceding the takeover by the Khmer Rouge.
Returning to the turbulence of Reformation – it was not all it seems to us today, an act of righteous outrage against the corrupt Vatican. Strap on your seatbelts.
The Protestants received heavy support from… The Ottoman Empire. It was no mere fomenter of trouble, but a major ally – there was even a Franco-Ottoman treaty. Without Turkish help Charles V would have crushed the Lutherans. William of Orange openly sent for Turkish help. England took on Spain in alliance with Barbary states, and plans were made for a combined invasion of France by Huguenot and Ottoman forces.
The Turkish motive was transparent – Catholic Austria, Hungary and Spain blocked Turkish expansion, and the knights of St John wrought havoc on the Turkish side of the Mediterranean Sea. Of course, little imagination was required – Western Europeans heavily backed the Ottomans in the war against Byzantium. The object, yet again, was economic colonization of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Those who find it incredible that Trotsky was financed from Wall St and sent to Russia with a specific list of corporate orders should think back to the heady days of the Turkish advance – neither side hesitated to support the armies of a rival faith to meet short-term objectives. If Genoese sailors could transport Ottoman troops and teach them how to build ships, and Protestant stalwarts could accept assistance from Suleiman I to slaughter fellow Christians – Trotsky’s ideological differences with his banker uncle are surely just digressions of fashion.
I believe that this type of warfare gained widespread acceptance at Reformation. Every event known as a revolution in conventional textbooks needs to be re-examined in that light. Yes, there were always malcontents and the aggrieved on the ground – but who was really pulling the strings?
As usual, all one needs to do is follow the money. Who were the real beneficiaries of the bloody English Revolution? Was it really about Charles I, given that Charles II resumed most of his father’s obnoxious habits, or was it a simple property grab?
Was the French Revolution a spontaneous uprising of the oppressed, or was it carefully planned and financed from overseas – like the Decembrist mutiny in Russia? The Decembrists were heavily financed from Britain – this was freely confessed by the leader of the rebels. That leader was elected in advance, and he had a prepared manifesto. The Decembrists planned laws and other actions that were chillingly familiar to the students of the French Revolution. They picked a good moment – when the royal succession suffered a hiccup between two brothers. Only one man – the newly crowned Nicholas I – stood between them and the scenario of 1917. Nicholas I delivered on the oath to his nation. The rebellion was crushed.
The French and British revolutions need to be re-examined with a magnifying glass. Those two nations are the origin of the fiat system – financing economic growth with candy wrappers, redeemed at the expense of distant colonies or major advances in technology.
The very same system which is now destroying the Western civilization. How that disease was introduced into those two nations is how we, today, are being undone.
This form of fighting needs to be viewed as a kind of biological warfare. It needs to be banned and severely punished. Handing out pounds and dollars to passers-by for participation in a street protest against Putin needs to attract retribution a la McCarthy – a process which America failed to follow through, leading to a resurgence of its fifth column in 1960′s. There should not have been an Alinsky or a Frank Davis – at the very least, they should have been driven insane by constant surveillance. Politics on foreign money should be a total anathema.
Like biological warfare, fomenting revolutions is a double-edged sword. The British socialist victory of 1945, an event from which Britain had never recovered, was a result of a concerted Soviet effort of the preceding two decades. But this was little more than the Russians finally learning the lesson, after two centuries of British meddling in Russia. Instead of entering into combat with the British Empire, they destroyed it from within. That operation outdid all of the British efforts of two hundred years combined, with socialists rushing to abandon India (to its fate), only two years after their victory. Modern UK is a tiny stump of its former glory pre-1945.
America too is struggling for survival. The Soviet infiltration of its opinion makers began very early – from late 1920′s, and it took a long time to bear fruit. However, it too succeeded unequivocally, with an entrenchment of a Marxist in the White House in 2008. In all likelihood, his successor will be even worse. Nobody in the world should gloat about that – a collapse of United States will trigger a global tsunami. No one will escape the consequences.
That is the trouble with spreading disease – in the end it always comes back to the perpetrator, and no one ever proves to be immune.
November 11th, 2013 by Vigilo
Most conventional November 11th posts offer up a lame ‘happy’ and ‘thanks,’ but we’re going a different route. Part of this is because a web page doesn’t really do veterans all that much justice. But most of this is because we need to honestly call out all of the lip service and Veteran’s Day hypocrisy.
Those in government will no doubt pay the veterans ‘respect’ and hold nominal ceremonies on Monday. Yet, it was just a few weeks ago that the ‘Greatest Generation’ of veterans from World War II were locked out off their memorial. By the end of this post, I hope to raise awareness on a few other issues, and not say a hollow “thanks,” but a heartfelt “Sorry” to all the veterans.
Veterans March on Washington of 2013
Riot police, Mounted Police, humvee, dozens of police vehicles, helicopter with snipers, spotters/snipers on the White House roof… Sounds like a scene out of a movie, right? Wrong. That is just the response from the government towards a group of it’s military veterans. It wasn’t 1932, but the 2013 Veterans March on Washington also forebodes a dark story. The scenes from both of those years are ones we should remember during all the Veteran’s Day hypocrisy.
The Veterans March on Washington (2013) was in response to President Obama’s Department of the Interior order to close the nation’s parks. Upon realizing this specific fallout from the United States Government Shutdown, the House passed a resolution to reopen the National Parks. The Senate, nor President Obama would act on the resolution. Caught in the crossfire were World War II veterans, many of them wheel chair bound and physically unable to jump the ‘Barrycades.’
Reaching the end of their lives, they are embarking on the final opportunity to see the World War II Memorial, and pay respect to their fallen comrades. Honor Flight is the organization that make this all possible. However, with the Department of Interior continually barrycading the memorial, these men were shut out.
So ahead of Honor Flight’s Oct. 13 arrival in Washington, DC, a rally was planned. The 2013 Veterans March on Washington would see the people, many of them veterans, physically remove the Barrycades. This was the only action which allowed the World War II veterans to experience THEIR memorial. Inevitably, some of these Barrycades would end up at the White House, where they were likely conceptualized.
This event really helped illustrate where we are as a nation and further demonstrated Veteran’s Day hypocrisy.
- Those in power are so petty as to prevent old men from accessing an area that, under normal circumstances, is open 24 hours with unessential staff.
- The police are instructed to block roadways only for political reasons.
- Veterans are viewed by the government as a threat.
- Intimidation and provocation tactics are used on vets.
What about 1932?
Oh right, one of the forgotten episodes in American History. You know, the one where the military was ordered to “Charge!” it’s own veterans. The attacked vets (and joining groups) were known as the Bonus Army. The ‘official’ casualty total was 4 dead and 1,017 injured.
Excerpt taken from Wikipedia:
The Bonus Marchers, believing the troops were marching in their honor, cheered the troops until Patton ordered the cavalry to charge them—an action which prompted the spectators to yell, “Shame! Shame!”
Many people who were stateside during WWI made a higher wage than soldiers on the frontline. So in 1924, the veterans of World War I were finally awarded bonuses to make up for the wages they would have otherwise earned in civilian jobs. The caveat was that the certificates could not be redeemed until 1945. The Bonus Army was formed as the veterans of World War I were desperate to redeem their bonus payment ‘early,’ especially in the face of the Great Depression. And so the Veterans March on Washington of 1932 was the result. Whether or not you sympathize with their plight, the fact remains, the US Army attacked US Veterans. I doubt this episode will be mentioned during the Veteran’s Day hypocrisy.
Veterans Need Not Apply
Rumors of foreign troops on U.S. Soil, those in law enforcement who will break their oath, and then those in the prospective National Civilian Security Force are more examples of Veteran’s Day hypocrisy. These may be in the speculative stage for now, but it’s obvious that each can be used against veterans.
Rumors, Just Rumors
You may see rumors of DHS organizing 15,000 Russian troops for an emergency. We definitely have 15,000 of our own troops at home and abroad who can handle an emergency. There are more than 15,000 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans who could enlist to help in an emergency as well. But a novelist might conclude that such a government would be anticipating an event in which their own military and veterans may not follow orders. I wonder what it means in real life.
Or there is that other rumor of the Communist Peoples Republic of China Army being on the ground….. in the U.S.A.! This, of course, is for ‘simulating’ an ‘emergency drill.’ The Nov. 12-14 drill will be centered around testing the resiliency of the power grid.
Conspiracy theorists or novelists might think that the Chinese could have spies who would be able to report on the weaknesses ib the United States’ infrastructure. Or others might even think that these troops could have some other nefarious intent.
Is this a good time to bring up President Obama’s purging of the military? Reportedly 197 officers in his 5 years? He isn’t executing them like Stalin, but the impact remains. The latest on the Purge (as of this writing).
But rest assured you fear-mongers, snopes.com has pointed out that there is no threat.
Just Following Orders | Oathkeeper vs Oathbreaker
As was seen during the Veterans March on Washington 2013, the line is thin between the oathkeepers and the oathbreakers. Surely many of the law enforcement would have rather spent their Sunday somewhere else. However, ALL of them reported for work and followed orders. They were there to intimidate and provoke the veterans and protesters…..in my opinion.
If things got too testy, what force would they have been ordered to use? Would they follow the order? How many of them would even use force beyond the order as Gen. MacArthur?
In Hitler’s Germany, they were just following orders. In Russia’s Gulag, they were just following orders.
Obama’s National Civilian Security Force
That’s right! We haven’t forgotten the talk before the 2008 election. You know, the one calling for a civilian force that will be ‘just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded’ as the military.
With economic calamity approaching, this could be a very useful group, eh? Imagine a scenario where preppers, anti-tax folks, and the like, are actually deemed anti-government. We already see evidence of this happening in numerous memos. Would those who rely on government assistance to feed their families end up joining such a force? Would they hesitate to shoot on you?
In keeping with the lame government acronyms, we will call them the Special Homeland Internal Troops …. aka SHIT.
We see the government becoming more and more hostile towards it’s citizens and veterans. Through orders, bills, and propaganda; we even see some members of government labeling strict Constitutionalists as ‘terrorists.’ Does that mean the government is anti-constitutional? Well anyway, it’s interesting considering the openness for interpretation of things like the NDAA. Who or what constitutes the ‘terrorist’ of tomorrow is anybody’s guess. Are these the warning signs that the Jews failed to see before the Nuremburg laws….the Russian peasants before Dekulakization?
Is the Veterans March on Washington (2013) just a benign event where the government overstaffed? Was it’s lack of coverage in mainstream news, a news story itself? Was the government hoping for just one protester to overreact to the police presence?
In the face of the Veteran’s Day hypocrisy, it is a
Happy Sad Veterans Day to all who have served.
Though we have allowed our government to attack/fire upon/kill you, we believe to make up for it with a worded “Thanks!”
Though we didn’t appreciate your sacrifice in Vietnam, we will sport a flag lapel pin in your memory.
Though we allow your veterans programs to be underfunded, we will still raise a flag in your honor.
Though we ignore your dozens who commit suicide DAILY with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, you can feel good knowing that we will wear a camo ribbon for you this week.
Instead of Happy Veterans Day, maybe it should be Sorry Veteran’s Day. So for at least one day, this website will take the time to say sorry to the veterans. I only hope that this post will raise some awareness, because it definitely won’t serve enough justice.
ACTION during Veteran’s Day Hypocrisy
While all the Veteran’s Day hypocrisy is going on this year, you can apologize to the vets by considering a donation in their support. Below are a few groups of which I have no connection. You can research additional organizations if you are so compelled.
If you know of anyone who may suffer from PTSD, clicking HERE may be a good start.
Thunder Road Film - An epic war drama for a defining generation that Hollywood is too afraid to make.
Helios Warriors - Provides therapies to ALL veterans. specializing in Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI), or military sexual trauma.
Pets For Vets – Pairs dogs with America’s veterans who could benefit from a companion animal. (especially those with PTSD)
Honor Flight - Helps every single veteran in America, willing and able of getting on a plane or a bus, to visit THEIR memorial.
Defending the Blue Line – Actively works to ensure that children of military members are afforded every opportunity to participate in the game of hockey.
Forgive us for the Veteran’s Day hypocrisy. Oh look! There is a sale over there!
With God’s Will.
October 30th, 2013 by Vigilo
As we find the Dow Jones 30 at the (all-time) top yet again, it’s time for Crash 2013 Update #4. The Federal Reserve will get a quick mention, as well as the government shutdown, debt ceiling, Obamacare, etc. But more importantly, in regards to the obvious channel, the Dow Jones will be discussed. This current week (and maybe into next) is the most crucial to date. More on this most crucial week can be found down in the ‘Next Phase’ section.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
In update #2 (Sept 15), it was pointed out that resistance would be found on the Dow near the 15,658 mark. In fact, the timing of that update was 3 days before the eventual short term reversal. On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced that the 85 billion/month quantitative easing would continue unchanged. The Dow then closed at 15,676.54 on September 18, less than 20 points over my target. It stumbled before even having a chance to retest and quickly worked it’s way back down to the support line.
Then in update #3 (Oct 6), as we were approaching the bottom of the channel, I told you the 3 directions the index could go. As it turns out, it took the path which was the least likely. Apparently the government shutdown, debt ceiling, Obamacare glitches, etc…NOT being solved, are actually GOOD for the market?? But we live in interesting times, so the illogical is logical…..and don’t ever forget that.
Looking at the photo from the previous update, you can see that the path shown in green was the actual one. This was labeled as “Bounce off Support and UP,” and in the description, I said……
“Remember that we need to wait for confirmation. Even if the DOW does bounce off of support, it would need to go up above the 15,700 level and STAY there. If it were to go up, then fail at resistance as it just did three times this year, then we are still in the reversal pattern. A rise that does not break the resistance would only show a continuation of the current channel, and would only mean the Crash 2013 will be delayed.”
So now that we see which outcome played out, what should we look for next?
Next Phase in Crash 2013?
Again, looking at our previous data, we are in a channel until we break out of it. That said, here are 2 outcomes to look for in the short term.
BREAK THROUGH RESISTANCE
If we see the Dow break through the 15,700-15,750 area, that will be a big bullish sign and really push back Crash 2013. But before it can be regarded as bullish, watch for it to retest the resistance as a support. If it fails and heads back down, then the channel continues. If it does not fail, then we can consider it bullish. I believe this is the least likely to happen. But we know that the market is totally illogical and irrational right now. If I had to put a number on it for this week, I’m saying the Dow has to break 15,742….AND CONFIRM.
REACH RESISTANCE AND FAIL DOWNWARD
I am expecting this outcome to play out. If you want to draw it all the way back, this resistance line has not been broken since the year 1958. Can all the funny money floating around out there be enough to push it over? Will the Market Mirage be extending under the Fed’s 85 billion of monthly liquidity? Or will reality win out? I’m looking for reality to finally win one. In that case, all this ‘money’ can hope to do is maintain the channel for now.
If this outcome happens, then the Dow will likely reach the support line yet again. And then at that point, we can revisit the 3 outcomes again from the previous update. Like clockwork.
Most Crucial Week?
Why is this the most crucial week to date in setting the future? Every time the Dow approaches this resistance line, it is a battle between the bears and bulls to see if the long term uptrend will continue, or a new downtrend will occur. For now, the channel signifies that there is a distribution phase. The longer it goes, the longer and more defined the next trend may be. However, the next trend will not be confirmed until either the support or resistance lines are broken and confirmed. As the Dow approaches the resistance line, every time it fails to break through, may be the last time it even reaches that high.
Of course, in a future hyperinflationary environment, the numbers will have a nominal meaning and need to be adjusted for inflation. But in real value, each flirtation with the resistance could be the FINAL top in this paradigm.
Other Things of Note
For several months now, the 3 major indices…S&P, NASDAQ, Dow Jones…have been in disagreement. All three have been in a channel, but their angles differ drastically. Interesting to note though, that this variation could also be seen back in 2000 preceding that major correction.
While in this current channel in the Dow, we have seen certain events happen to occur in or around the short term reversal. In the pic, marked are the FOMC meeting Sept. 17, the Government Shutdown End Oct. 10/16, FOMC meeting Oct. 29/30. Also, to give an idea of when I have given you UPDATES, they are marked in PURPLE. Hope you have been able to utilize the info and it’s timing. I have tried to time the updates a few days before each reversal and have been successful thus far.
In the previous update, I rattled off some geopolitical and political impacts on the economy and sentiment. They included the Debt Ceiling, Government Shutdown, Obamacare, Syria, Iran, etc.
- Debt Ceiling – Not solved. Missing are the republican’s balls. Instead, the temporary ‘solution’ was to just ignore the debt ceiling and have no limit for now. When was the last time your credit card company gave you a no limit card, and then gave you no timetable to pay it back?….. Exactly.
- Government Shutdown – Ended, but nothing solved. In fact, the republicans main reason for the shutdown was to delay Obamacare for a year. Well, after the repubs lost that one, Obamacare’s website was so bad that it’s own peddlers pushed to delay the mandate implementation instead…….sigh, Exactly.
- Obamacare – What more needs to be said here? Healthcare is a HUGE chunk of the economy. But Obamacare is just the fake system designed to fail so that ignorant people demand universal healthcare (which already exists for some anyway), and they’ll likely get it. Personally, I received my letter saying my health insurance would be terminated at the end of next year. So thanks a lot government, your “law” will actually MAKE me UNINSURED. I’ll just pay the ‘fine’ or ‘tax’ or whatever they made up to pretend it’s Constitutional.
- Syria, Iran – Well, I’ll just say thank God for the internet…..or else we’d be in another war.
These things, along with global uncertainty, toxic derivatives, and just an overall ignorance of anything substantive…..Well, Crash 2013 is still coming.
Though I’m risking a lot of time decay, some of the existing options are for March 2014. I believe that Crash 2013 will be underway between now and March 2014. My bet is that we will see some action in December, but I don’t pretend to know exactly. I’m just putting my money on it happening before March 2014.
Crash 2013 Update #4 Closing
As was stated above, each time we approach this resistance line, it is crucial since it could be for the LAST TIME. Sure, the possibility exists that the Dow will break through resistance and go to much higher heights. However, it is even more conceivable that we are witnessing the top….now. The global economy is so fragile and it’s built on a foundation of fiat currencies, sovereign debts, corruption, etc. Any seemingly minor event could progress into the black swan and trigger Crash 2013. This is not meant as alarmist or conspiratorial. It is meant as matter of factly. There will be a collapse that will end the system as we know it. I think Crash 2013 could be the one that sets it into motion. The current system is unsustainable. It is not a matter of IF, it’s a matter of WHEN.
Admittedly, it’s unconventional to still be talking of Crash 2013 as the Dow and S&P are at all-time record highs. But hopefully you are familiar with my site and it’s challenge to conventional wisdom. One thing to consider about these highs is the lame amount of volume. You can compare the volume to that of the day before Independence Day when people are cooking out. Even if there is more of a run-up from here, to me, it is all the Market Mirage. I just don’t trust it.
Remember in the very first Crash 2013 post, the title said “Don’t Be a Victim. Prepare. Prosper.” In a new system, the old way of life will be changed. Do you have physical precious metals, food, essentials? Along with positioning yourself correctly with the ‘stock market,’ these things are of even more importance. Don’t Be a Victim.
And finally, this is post #100 on Procinctu.info. Thanks to all of you who have given your time and spent it on this site.
Enjoy your Halloween, Love your Family.
Gods will be done.
October 6th, 2013 by Vigilo
In this Update #3 of Procinctu’s Crash 2013 Series, we address the status of the DOW, the past Federal Reserve announcement September 17th, and the next phase of Crash 2013. The head and shoulders pattern, or triple top, has played out just as was written in the previous updates…so now what?
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Please see the video below to get a broader picture of the DOW, where it’s been, and where it’s going. In the previous update, 15,658 was mentioned in the video as the target on this latest bounce. It was said that the DOW would have to fail at this level for a confirmed head and shoulders. Well, 15,658 DID get eclipsed, but only barely. Actually, the DOW failed miserably at that area, and I have a theory as to why this is STILL a head and shoulders. Though even if I’m wrong, this is still a definite triple top. Any way you slice it, the DOW is in a distribution phase and a strong trend reversal pattern.
While preparing for Crash 2013, so much focus is put on the DOW because that seems to be a general indicator of ‘the market’ to most people. The DOW also appears more clear, and ahead of schedule than the NASDAQ and S&P. So In the next section, we will look back at the time since the last update (September 15). And in the section following, we will look toward the time directly ahead concerning Crash 2013.
Since Last Update | Fed QE Announcement
A few days after the last update, the Federal Reserve announced that Quantitative Easing would continue as the rate of $85 billion dollars per month! That news came as a surprise to most people in the market, as a small tapering of 10-20 billion was expected.
I believe that this news provided a fake out for the market. You had a slight uptick in volume, but a huge spike in price on the news. This spike took us past the 15,658 number, and right to the really strong resistance level (drawn in purple). However, to show just how fragile this market is, this spike was wiped out in 2 days. 3 days after the fed’s surprise announcement, we saw a big drop on high volume. This made the previous spike somewhat of a mirage.
As it turns out, the Federal Reserve’s antics coincided with our THIRD TOP. Whether it can be regarded as a head and shoulders, or just a triple top, the formation is a still an important indicator giving reason that the bullish trend has come to an end. Now we wait for confirmation.
In the video, I show how the previous data in the DOW can be used to predict a possible future. As I write this, the DOW is approaching a strong line of support which has been in place since early 2013. As it approaches the support line, it needs to also contend with political and geopolitical forces. We need to wait and see what will happen at this line. Here are the main 3 outcomes.
Bounce of Support and UP
This is not an impossible move, especially with Black Friday and the Christmas season approaching. However, I believe this to be the least likely move. Remember that we need to wait for confirmation. Even if the DOW does bounce off of support, it would need to go up above the 15,700 level and STAY there. If it were to go up, then fail at resistance as it just did three times this year, then we are still in the reversal pattern. A rise that does not break the resistance would only show a continuation of the current channel, and would only mean the Crash 2013 will be delayed.
Hang Around the Current Support Level
The DOW could totally come to this support level, lose momentum, and just chop sideways. In the video, I drew a possible channel in which it could do this, after breaking support to the down side. This sideways action would be pretty scary for the bulls though. The reason is because this crucial support line has been holding up all year. With the government shutdown, upcoming debt ceiling, and geopolitical threats, etc., any event could trigger panic and send it quickly south. In this scenario, Crash 2013 would be delayed a bit as well. But once the support is convincingly broken, all bets are off (unless you are shorting the market, then all bets would be on!).
DOW Breaks Support and Sells Off
In this scenario, Crash 2013 would be the most immediate. The DOW could blow through support, retest then fail. At that point, a series of big drops could ensue as the DOW moves lower and lower from support line to support line. As mentioned before, the debt ceiling and any geopolitical event can fan the flames of a market sell off. As we are now very near the support line, it is conceivable that the debt ceiling debate could provide bearish news. More on that in the next section.
Any one of these 3 scenarios could play out, and it is best to wait and see which one confirms before acting. Just like the shopping season could boost sentiment, it can just as easily under perform and be a Crash trigger itself. We at least know what to look for.
In the last update, we were looking at the Federal Reserve action on September 17th. In this update, I’m saying that the importance of October 17 dwarfs even that. We finally have a Congress that has enough balls to say ‘no.’ (the government is shutdown) I don’t know how long they can hold out, but if they can say ‘no’ to the blank checkbook, then I believe the next phase in Crash 2013 will be an active one.
Since we don’t know exactly what the government will do, we have to assume that the result is not currently priced into the market. The interesting part here is that it IS common knowledge that there WILL be a debt ceiling debate. So the debate IS already priced into the market, but the prospect of a certain RESULT form the debate is NOT. Looking at things now, the market doesn’t seem too worried at this time. Will everybody be wrong as they were in September, or will we kick the can down the road yet again?
Personally, for the republic’s survival, I actually want a shutdown, and want NO debt ceiling increase. This will likely lead to Crash 2013, and maybe even depression. However, for every day we allow the government to spend wildly, for every debt increase, for every overreaching law, we only tighten our future shackles.
Just think if in 2008, we allowed the bad banks to fail. The sufficient would be better off today, and the non-sufficient would be out of business. Isn’t that how capitalism is supposed to work? Instead, we have had our future stolen from us, just to prop up that which can not stand.
Eventually, the party WILL end. For every day this end is delayed, the crash will be harder. It’s best to get it going now. Then we can focus on rebuilding (if they will allow us).
I’m not going to get too deep into this for the Crash 2013 update, but it is front and center right now. Employers are concerned with cutting employees hours to be exempt, Joe Schmoe is freaking out over his increase in premiums, John Doe had his personal information leaked, Jane Doe is still waiting for the webpage to load, the priest is upset about paying for abortion, and that guy is calculating if it makes more sense to just pay the tax and stay uninsured. Obamacare is a mess and it will have an effect on the market.
All that said, in some weird way, Obamacare COULD be what saves the United States. (maybe this will be it’s own post soon) Without Obamacare, millions of Americans would still be asleep. Just after that law passed in 2010, we saw a flip in control of the House, but not just a flip from D to R. We saw the republican party infiltrated by tea partiers and libertarian minded people. Whether everyone accepts it or not, the country’s future rests on them and their success in providing gridlock.
I laugh when I see people say Congress isn’t working regarding the shutdown. Those people need to check their U.S. Constitution. Congress is working exactly as it is supposed to……checks and balances.
Really quick, I wanted to point out that I picked up some shares of SDOW on the latest move towards support. SDOW is an inverse ETF which moves on average, 3x the opposite direction of the DOW. I will sell it before the DOW reaches support, and wait and see the next move.
Crash 2013 Update #3 Closing
I haven’t mentioned much in these updates, but when facing Crash 2013, make sure you have your essentials in the way of food, water, and other emergency prep. There is a ‘Preparation’ tab at the top on this site in which you can get a general outline.
Finally, take the time to understand where the DOW has been to get a better handle on where it is going. October 17th is the next big date we will be anticipating. With the government shutdown, debt ceiling, Obamacare, Syria, Iran, people burning, etc…..this could be the trigger phase on Crash 2013. Wait, see, and adjust accordingly.
With God’s will…
October 3rd, 2013 by Vigilo
This week’s Thursday Thought revolves around Wealth Confiscation and safeguarding one’s wealth. Obviously, it came to me while being in the company of people who have earned themselves wealth. But while this Thursday Thought has them in mind, it is really for everybody who has any type of savings or retirement plan.
This concern of Wealth Confiscation came while attending a Cadre event in Washington D.C. Cadre is a group of successful entrepreneurs who are more interested in HELPING and ADDING VALUE, then they are interested in throwing a sales pitch at a networking event. In fact, Cadre stands for Connecting Advocates. Deepening Relationships. Exclusively. So that pretty much sums it up.
At this particular event, we heard talks from James Altucher and Jay Baer. James has been mentioned on this site before regarding his book “Choose Yourself.” It’s about the ever changing world and why it’s time to Choose Yourself in this new era. And Jay authored a book titled “YOUtility,” which has to do with marketing using a ‘HELP’ mentality, as opposed to a ‘HYPE’ mentality. After they spoke, the Cadre members (and non-members) then gathered up on the balcony for an UN-networking event. There is where the Wealth Confiscation Thursday Thought was formed.
Those in the Cadre group are admittedly further along in the journey as am I. However, even there, I got the same bewilderment concerning gold and silver as I do from Joe Schmoe on the street. In fact, only James Altucher was on the same page regarding silver. Now, I didn’t talk to THAT many people about it. But the lack of knowledge on the subject of those I did speak, was a bit disconcerting to me. These are very successful people, and to not even have considered their Wealth Confiscation seems irresponsible and/or naive. What about Cyprus? Poland? Or all of the other latest red flags around the world….
Consider that the troubles facing the United States are far larger and more globally reaching than these little canaries. Are the most connected and most successful businessmen and women among us really not prepared for what’s coming? They have never given even a thought to Wealth Confiscation?
There are people who really believe they can change the world. I include myself in that group even as I write from the humble abodes of the ‘not-quite-there-yet’ Procinctu. But if 25% of any one’s wealth is taken overnight, wouldn’t that limit their effectiveness? What is half was taken? 75% ? You get the picture. And the picture is starting to come into focus regarding Wealth Confiscation.
Canaries in the Mineshaft
It was only last March that Cyprus held a bank holiday. Subsequently, Laiki bank was closed, and the Bank of Cyprus was recapitalized. If you had an uninsured account totaling more than 100,000 Euros, say goodbye to a large chunk of your wealth. This was all for a ‘bail-out/bail-in’ of course. And what was the government’s loan requirement to address it’s deficit spending and the bailout…..only $10 billion Euros. Compare that to the almost 17 trillion USD debt. I’ll write it out so we know what it looks like… $16,743,920,719,890.75.
Then earlier this month, Poland announced it would transfer (confiscate) it’s citizen’s private pension fund bond holdings to the state. Roughly half of their life savings (if it’s in those funds) are to be nationalized! So here are just two of the most recent forms of Wealth Confiscation.
Same Old Story
The story is the same for every nation with this problem….TOO MUCH DEBT. So we see the United States’ large debt amount written above, but that doesn’t even include future obligations like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, etc. What’s that, hundreds of trillions? The only reason the U.S. has been able to blow the bubble larger and larger is because of it’s Global Reserve Currency Status and the Petrodollar.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has been performing quantitative easing for quite some time, like since 2008! That is, they are currently buying $85 billion dollars worth of bonds every month. What happens when they stop? Where will the banks ‘liquidity’ come from? Will the government ‘creatively’ force it’s citizens to buy the bonds instead? Will the whole economy come to a screeching halt? Will we see Wealth Confiscation in the name of patriotism?
These are questions we all need to ask ourselves. If your money is in an account, it is quite easy for it to be taken out Cypriot-Style. However, if you have your wealth in modern unconventional holdings, like gold and silver, you make it a bit more difficult for them to steal.
Gold and Silver
Physical gold and silver NEED to be an everyone’s portfolio, even if there wasn’t a threat of Wealth Confiscation. Understand that it’s not fool-proof, especially if you don’t diversify it internationally. They can even add an insanely high windfall tax on silver and gold if they want, BUT you can prepare for that too. Just know that you increase your chances of keeping your wealth if you have some gold and silver.
Again, it’s easy to confiscate a bank account’s holdings, it can be done from someone’s bed. But to confiscate physical gold and silver? They have to get out of bed, drive to their facility, strap on their riot gear, load all the guns, get gas, drive to your house, spray a bunch of bullets, etc. You see, it’s totally not worth the hassle. That can of course happen eventually, but it likely won’t be the first option in Wealth Confiscation. At least not when so many other people DID leave ALL their wealth in a bank and conventional ‘savings’ fund.
How much and when?
O.K. I didn’t put TOO much thought into this analogy, but hear me out. You are on a train. You can see the bridge is out ahead. You don’t know exactly how long until you make it to the bridge, but you know that you need to get ready to exit the train. However, you can’t jump just yet, because there are marauders chasing your train. You will need to time the jump between outrunning the marauders, and also getting off the train before it speeds off the cliff. So prepare now and jump when it is time for your best chance of survival.
Translation. Prepare now by putting a comfortable amount into physical gold and silver. Personally, I obviously put a larger percentage, but for beginners, 5-10% would be a good start. At least it’s much better than 0%. There may be one big final smack down in the ‘paper price’ of gold and silver before their actual value is finally realized. THAT is the time you are going to want to go all out for it. 20% or 25% of your wealth, even more if you are totally convinced. This will give you the best chance in fighting the battle life will present you and any Wealth Confiscation will be less likely to harm you. Again, nothing is certain, but probabilities need to be weighed.
This is already too long for a Thursday Thought, so I’m just going to wrap it up and say that if this Wealth Confiscation talk was mildly engaging, feel free reach out. You can send an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org and just say you would like to know more. This can be explained further, and there are also steps to take in not getting ripped off. You can also check out the money section of this website for information about the horrible fundamentals of the U.S. and global economies. The main point is, no matter how much you have saved, do you really want to lose your life’s savings because some politicians spend other people’s money beyond the means? If the answer is no, there are ways to protect yourself.
Before leaving, if you do happen to be a successful entrepreneur, and are looking to add value to others of your mindset, then check out Cadre to see if it suits you. It is predominantly based in Washington D.C., but you can decide for yourself if you want to inquire further.
We’ll finish with the closing from Zero Hedge…
“But best of all, in the aftermath of Cyprus, we now know what the two most recent European blueprints for preserving the myth of solvency are: bail-ins, which confiscate deposits, and pension fund “overhauls”, which confiscate, well, pension funds.
And now, back to the global recovery soap opera.”
If you think “It can’t happen here,” then I’ll be the one to bring you the bad news. It can happen here. In time, wealth confiscation probably will happen here. So, do you want your wealth, for which you worked so hard, to just be another character in the soap opera? Or do you want to create your own non-fiction with it? It’s up to you.
With God’s will..
September 27th, 2013 by Vigilo
Quite a short update today. As you may know and as I stated in my previous video, the FOMC did not decide to taper its QE program this month. Once the markets heard the news, the metals rallied like never before. This was due mostly to the non-tapering statement by the Fed, and also because there was a long over-exaggerated bearish candle where traders felt the FOMC would taper this month. That candle broke the support of original channel. Shortly thereafter, the hope for Gold to see $1400 soon diminished as just two days later, a Fed Governor stated that the FOMC may taper in October 2013. Again, rhetoric from the Fed created panic in the stock markets, in particular, the metals market. Ever since then, Gold consolidation has remained.
Gold Consolidation is Not the Best Time to Trade
It is not smart to trade and guess the direction of where Gold is headed as the gold consolidation could fire to the upside or to the downside. If the gold consolidation fires south, look for 1300, 1280′s & 1275 area to bring support. 1275/76 is a key level for Gold to hold after it’s consolidation, as this is the 61.8% level of the current bullish trend. As long as Gold stays above this level, Gold’s intermediate bull run stays in-tact. Also, we want to make sure the bounce, aka momentum, from support is quite high to the upside; This will give us confirmation that the fire from the gold consolidation, though it may initially be down, is still going to keep this bull trend alive. However, if gold pierces below the 1275 area, then it will most likely not reach 1400′s, and we need to look for Bearish entries as the bullish trend has been broken.
Obviously, if price shoots up from the gold consolidation, then it does make it quite likely that Gold could see 1400′s. Should it fire north or bounce hard from any of the above support levels, we need to look to see if it can take out the 1380′s & the 1400 level. Only if it can stay above 1400 would we then expect Gold to “kiss” the 200 Day Moving Average around mid 1400′s.
Again, there are a different set of rules and a different mindset for those acquiring physical gold for the future. But for trading purposes, let’s wait and see where the price fires from the current gold consolidation. It would be nice to see Gold keep it’s intermediate bullish trend.
Hope it helps,