Archive for the ‘Money’ Category

As the last quarter of 2018 begins, what is a realistic price to expect for Bitcoin going into 2019, and why? The current price of Bitcoin is $6,652 …… but just how far away is $100,000? What about $300,000?!

In 2016, I published an article Bitcoin and Gold in 2017 | $10,000 Bitcoin is Coming. At the time, Bitcoin was only trading for $959, so the call for $10,000 seemed outlandish to many….just like $300,000 may seem outlandish today. Back then, it took 3 years for bitcoin to meet the territory of its previous all time high from 2013, and then another 11 months for bitcoin to go from $959 to $10,000.

$100,000 Bitcoin

Looking at the history of the price swings in Bitcoin, $100,000 is not that far away. Though in truth, neither is $3,000! Bitcoin is still regarded as ‘speculative’ by many, and there are a great number of people who have still never heard of it! Despite the advances and developments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, mass adoption has NOT yet been realized.

Again, avoiding the discussion of decentralized money, and all the risks and rewards of cryptocurrencies, this article is to serve as a price forecast, so we will begin with the same market capitalization breakdown as in the 2016 article. Let’s illustrate why $100,000 Bitcoin is coming.

$100,000 Bitcoin and Market Capitalization

Market capitalization is the total value of something. In the case of Bitcoin, the market cap is currently about $115.37 billion dollars.

This is calculated by taking the current total number of Bitcoins in existence 17,281,987 and multiplying it by the current price of $6,676. (note: Bitcoins will cease to be mined at 21 million, here you can track the market capitalization of all crypto currencies)

As Bitcoin is traded globally, (even though the current market cap dwarfs the $15.4 billion from 2016) $115.37 billion dollars is still not much at all. Consider that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) alone has a market cap of $1,051 billion dollars…and consider that there is nearly $90 trillion in global equities in general!

*note: Since 2016 article.. Bitcoin market cap has increased from $15.4 billion to $115.37 billion. 
Apple from $625 billion to to $1,051 billion. Global equities from around 70 trillion to 90 trillion.

 

$100,000 Bitcoin would equal a market cap of $1,728 billion dollars. That is still less than the combined size of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT). Those two companies combine for a market cap of $1,810 billion. We must also consider that those are companies, and Bitcoin has a potential as a global currency.

For another perspective, if Bitcoin market cap were to reach the level of capitalization as Apple is currently, one Bitcoin would be valued at $60,800.

Bitcoin’s all time high was $19,891 at the end of 2017. That price was achieved in spite of it still being an unproven commodity. We are still talking about a 10 year old currency, which challenges the modern day central banking system, in a world with a $135 trillion GDP!

Now you can see, it’s nothing at all to get Bitcoin to $100,000. It’s all a matter of sentiment and mass adoption, and there are developers and advocates working around the clock to ensure that very eventual mass adoption.

Another perspective, the United States Monetary base peaked in 2015 at $4,167 billion. For one bitcoin to be valued at $300,000, its market cap would be near $5,184 billion. Therefore, $300,000 is a reasonable eventual price if bitcoin were to gain equal footing with the US dollar and other global currencies. Then, you can really start to blow your mind if you contemplate it’s price if it were to gain dominance over the other global currencies. But first thing is first.

This section was to help you conceptualize the potential of value of Bitcoin. The eventual price of $100,000…$300,000…$1,000,000 for one bitcoin is not outlandish, but a very real possibility…and for many, it is an expectation.

And now….the real reason why you are here…. WHEN?

 

Bitcoin! When Moon, When Lambo?

There are those who unfortunately only buy into bitcoin manias to ride the rocket to the moon, to get rich quick, to buy lamborghinis….They make the price bubbles possible, and oftentimes are parted with their money. There are others who day trade cryptocurrencies as a stocktrader trades stocks. There are others who are true believers and “hodl” at any price, in hopes of an unimaginable wealth in the future. All of these groups of people must utilize the story told in the chart. And that is the story we will predict here.

I’m not ignorant of the fact that many have travelled down the ‘price prediction’ trap. It’s a dangerous territory putting one’s trustworthiness, credibility, and authority at risk. Also, consider these dates and prices as entertainment purposes. Don’t remortgage your house because you read on a blog that bitcoin would be worth $300,000 … you know? With that, here we go…

 

The first point to make is that bitcoin is a creature of habit. As you can see from the charts above, the bubble from 2017-2018 has an identical structure as does the bubble from 2013-2015. One major note is that bitcoin is moving almost twice as fast this time when compared to last time. The above chart is a weekly chart, and the current chart is a 4 day chart. IF we see a higher high in the very near future, I count the next bull run as being activated. If the higher high is delayed, this entire prediction will be off.

A few other things to look for… We should see price break through the 50 day moving average line, and we should see volume really pick up on a bullish move.

 

 

Another fact worth considering, is that the ‘bubble crash’ followed by a ‘cup and handle’ formation is not unique to bitcoin. This happens to many stocks as well. While some companies never recover from such a crash, others, like Amazon, soar exponentially. For example, after the dot com bubble in 1999, Amazon lost over 90% of its value, and bottomed at nearly $10 a share. Today, that $10 share is now valued at nearly $2,000!!

Again, current bitcoin price is moving even faster than Amazon. The Amazon chart is a 2 week chart, and the current bitcoin chart is a 4 day chart.

Now for the price predictions! Please take these as approximates. Bitcoin is so volatile, that I don’t pretend to KNOW what exactly is going to happen. This is merely my best guess based on previous bitcoin price movement…. here is what we get…

 

This current $6,000 – $7,000 price level is a great spot to accumulate in my opinion. Could there be a capitulation and a dump in price? Sure. But I would expect such a dip to be followed by a violent rip upwards in price. This is a great spot for long term positions considering the potential long-term prices.

The key potential prices and timelines:

  • End of 2018 – $10,000
  • New all-time high over $20,000 by July 2019
  • $100,000 level reached in December 2019
  • Bubble top up to $330,000 in December 2019
  • Crash down to near $100,000 accumulation in 2020
  • Wild card: next bubble top before 2022 near $5 million!

As before, when Bitcoin popularity grows, euphoria takes hold, prices skyrocket, then FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) is interjected, people will panic, the price will fall, there will be an accumulation period, then people eventually start using it again, then it’s popularity grows, euphoria takes over, and on goes the cycle….albeit with a new floor and support.

Regardless of how accurate these price predictions are, it is not a bad move to add Bitcoin to your cash and tangible assets. The potential of bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and blockchain is real. $100,000 Bitcoin is not that far away.

Lastly, here is an interview I gave in March 2018. This is the part of the interview in which we spoke of the future price of bitcoin…

How do I buy some? How can I trade it?

The easiest way for a beginner to buy bitcoin is through Coinbase. The link is my referral link. Upon buying or selling $100 worth of bitcoin, we both get $10 worth of bitcoin added to our accounts. Coinbase is FDIC insured for it’s cash deposits, and you set up your account much like you would a bank account. However, there is no branch you need to go to, you submit everything digitally. It’s fairly easy and a decent option for beginners.

To trade bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies), you first should be a competent trader with a trading plan! There are some exchanges which allow highly leveraged positions, with forced liquidations, and its just an all around bad recipe for beginners. That said, I personally use Kraken, Binance, Coinbase, and Bittrex.

If you need any help, feel free to reach out to me. I will help you free of charge as much as is reasonable. And if you need help setting up accounts or anything requiring more time, I’ll just ask for a nominal fee.

Also, I recommend Real Life Trading’s Crypto Course if you would like to start from scratch with a 5 video intro series to bitcoin, blockchain, and trading.

Conclusion

Heading into 2019, the Trump Rally may be nearing it’s end, and many emerging markets are already showing signs of a correction. As money flows out of equities, it very well may end up in cryptocurrencies.

Consider taking advantage of, or at least studying, the current opportunities in Bitcoin, other cryptos, and even the much maligned silver and gold. Oh, and instead of Lambos, may you be good stewards of your future crypto wealth. If you found this article helpful, or even entertaining, please consider throwing me a few satoshis. I don’t have nearly as many as I should, but that’s a topic for another article.

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Here are some useful tools:
Bitcoin Wallet – Coinbase
Bitcoin Charts
Real Life Trading Crypto Course

Crytpo Currency Market Capitalizations
Bitcoin real time flow

-Travis

JMJ – UIOGD

What is blockchain?

July 18th, 2018 by Vigilo

Being a proponent of cryptocurrencies, it is obvious that mass adoption is still a long way off.

The price of 1 bitcoin topped at nearly $20,000 in late 2017. While that generated some interest, most people still have no idea what that means, or what they can do with it.

Bitcoin is a decentralized distributed cryptocurrency (digital currency) without a central bank. It has a fixed supply, so no government or administrator can create coins out of thin air, like the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin is the most popular crypto, but there are thousands of other cryptocurrencies and tokens which address literally all aspects of human life. People are working to improve not only payment systems on the blockchain, but also healthcare, insurance, real estate transactions, information, voting, etc.

Improvement is good right? But before we get into learning all the different coins, what they do, and how to trade them…we all start at this first question. What is the Blockchain?

What is the Blockchain?

Instead of typing out how blockchain works, it may be easier to absorb through some tutorial videos. In about 40 mins, you can see all of the videos, and have a better understanding of what is blockchain. In the final video, you can actually see blockchain in practice.

 

If you are ready for more information beyond “What is Blockchain”, and want to learn how to trade cryptocurrencies, let me know.  I can recommend a full paid course that is not my own. Also, I can personally give you some tips, and if you want some more coaching beyond that, I can do so for a nominal fee.

Any questions or comments, fell free to do so below.

Travis

JMJ – UIOGD

Every now and then, I have a little mercy on my wife, and I bail her out from cooking dinner with an impromptu trip to a restaurant (preferably with a buffet). In this case, it was an Eat n Park. As we ate our 5 or so helpings from the unlimited soup and salad bar, we could not help overhearing the conversation from the adjacent booth.

OK. It wasn’t much of a conversation. Maybe it was a date? All we can say for sure is that it was an uninterested female, listening to a very animated guy (about 30 years old) talk non-stop about…..a video game. The amount of detail, the characters, the strategy, how much each character costs, the amount of time devoted, and on…we got quite the dose of eSports and gaming. Not to be gossipers, but my wife and I filled in a few blanks for each other as we took turns making trips to the buffet. I mean, we were kinda curious as to just how important this game was, to warrant him NOT having a car, as the game took so much of his time and money. Yeah, his admission.

That meal really hit home just how obsessed, er, devoted gamers can be. This guy eats, sleeps, and breathes his video game. Though surely he is not alone. In fact, he mentioned many ‘friends’ whom he had never met. One guy he really admired and envied, acquired a certain coveted character! Wow! As for the girl, she was just giving dismissive ‘mmm’ responses to everything…. But it begs the question: How many more are like him?

The Rising Trend of eSports and Gaming

For better or worse, things change. Trends come and go. Fads rise and fall.

Before continuing, I should disclose that I have not personally played a video game in probably decades. I’ve been meaning to plug in that dusty Nintendo I have stored away, and play “Ice Hockey, ” but something always is higher on the to-do list. (It really is called “Ice Hockey” btw)

That said, I’m definitely aware that others do play video games… a lot…and the Rising Trend of eSports and Gaming is real. I’ve walked past my now college age cousin playing with a headset, conversing with players in-game. I’ve heard the complaints from my sister about my nephew playing too much. I know that there are gamers of various stripes.

Contrast this air conditioned ‘play time’ with that of a story from the Great Depression. My nanu (grandfather) has many stories of how they played outside as youth. They even reused construction scraps to create variations of games we know today. Or my mother who recalls how all the neighborhood kids would be outside playing baseball, hockey, sled riding, etc. My own youth was spent outside on the swing, then climbing trees (until the neighbor cut them down), playing hockey, bicycling, swimming, and so on. After all, staying in the house would be considered a form of strict punishment!

But now, many kids prefer to stay in the house playing video games….electronic sports. Pigskin is being swapped for pixels. Vulcanized rubber for a plastic remote. Helmet for a headset.

The trend is clear. ESports and gaming are on the rise.

Where else can this be measured?

Pro Sports Attendance

There has been a topic recently about Major League Baseball instituting rule changes (like introducing the designated hitter in the National League) to increase offense. Why? Attendance has been getting hammered, down 6.6% from a year ago! They believe that replacing a pitcher’s at-bat with an actual hitter will lead to more offense, which will keep better interest for fans. They overlook that the American League, which already has the designated hitter rule, has most of the lowest drawing teams by attendance.

Is this an anomaly? Apparently not. In 2015, the National Football League’s Super Bowl had a TV viewership of over 114 million. In 2018, the viewership was down to 103 million.

After the ‘Stand for the Anthem’ controversy last season, several NFL stadiums saw huge swaths of empty seats. This was not really apparent in attendance as the tickets were pre sold (it will be interesting to see what happens this upcoming season)… but the eye test was unmistakable.

Staples Center | Los Angeles, CA | League of Legends Final | 2013

Staples Center | Los Angeles, CA | League of Legends Final | 2013

The National Hockey League’s San Jose Sharks play hockey at the SAP Centre. That venue hosted the INTEL Extreme Masters gaming event and drew 12,500 fans over two days. It’s true that the Sharks draw way more than that in a single game, but the INTEL event was viewed by 4 million people from their homes! That is ALMOST as many viewers as the NHL’s Stanley Cup Final draws! So it can be said that regular season viewership of the NHL is already surpassed by eSports and gaming viewership. Yes, read that again.

More ESports photos here.

An article on growing eSports viewership here.

Sure there and many variables with these stats, like weather for baseball attendance, and live streaming for hockey viewership. The point is, rule changes will do nothing in the face of a demographic shift.

 

This entire write up is not to say pro sports is dead, but it is changing. It must not be ignored that peak professional sports may be really close, if not already here. There is major competition in the rising eSports and gaming area, and we can see that attendance and viewers of conventional pro sports is becoming a concern.

It’s not all that crazy though. None of the major sports leagues even existed 150 years ago. When compared to thousands of years of human history, what is 150 years, but a phase. And the era of ever inflationary mega contracts for the athletes is only a few decades old. There is no reason why there can’t be salary deflation. Especially if attendance and viewership continues to trend down. The owners are running a business, and none of them want to lose money.

See below this IR4 chat about the Past, Present, and Future of Video Games. IR4 stands for the 4th Industrial Revolution. Check out their IR4 Patreon page to keep up with future updates.  (note: there are a few expletives used during the eSports and gaming talk)

 

Maybe you still are not convinced that eSports and gaming are a big deal… Then you should probably go to Eat n Park for the soup and salad bar. It’s only 8$ for a limited time… 11$ if you get it with a meal.

If you are already convinced that eSports and gaming are just beginning to take off in popularity, then here are some ways to prosper.

 

Capitalize on the Rise of eSports and Gaming

We are called to be good stewards of all that God provides us. So if you do take advantage of these opportunities in the Rise of eSports and gaming, be charitable with your wealth.

Keep in mind, it may not be the best time to buy some of these companies, as some of them are overbought or heading into resistance. However, a pullback can prove to be an opportunity of a lifetime. This is to alert you to long term plays for eSports and gaming, not for specific short term trades.

 

The recently launched HUYA Inc. (HUYA) is a leading game live streaming platform in China.

huya

 

Versus Systems Inc (VRSSF) has launched the Winfinite platform, which gives developers and publishers the ability to give in-game and real-world items as prizes. 

 

Activision Blizzard (ATVI) owns the Overwatch League! This is like the National Football League of gaming… and the owner of the New England Patriots and New York Mets are already owners of teams in the Overwatch League. More on Activision Blizzard here.

 

Tencent Holdings Ltd. (TCEHY) is a Chinese company which has the biggest stake in gaming in the whole world. It has owns most of or a piece of almost everything in the eSports and gaming industry. It even owns a piece of Activation Blizzard. 

 

Electronic Arts (EA) is the owner of the popular EA Sports subsidiary. They have been churning out games for several decades and have made popular the ‘Madden’ line of football games. 

 

Mentioned in the IR4 podcast was Twitch. Twitch was actually acquired by Amazon (AMZN). Through Amazon Web Services they can not be overlooked, as they have become a cloud computing giant, and Amazon is a mainstream vehicle to get involved with ESports. 

 

Fijian e-Gaming Tournament Group is partnering with AsuraCoin, currently in ICO, to be the token for payments to their tournament winners.

 

Unikrn has the UnicoinGold (UKG) betting token… and if people bet on conventional sports, then of course betting on eSports and gaming is to follow in big numbers. 

 

Skincoin (SKIN) allows gamers a medium-of-exchange to customize characters and buy upgrades…. and obviously these in-game items have a monetary value attached, as we heard from the guy at Eat n Park. 

 

Decentraland (MANA) is a virtual reality platform of the Ethereum blockchain. Virtual Reality. 

 

Enjin (ENJ) is a cryptocurrency for virtual goods. 

 

GameCredits (GAME) has a decentralized platform for developers to reach gamers, and also is trying to become the sole payment system for internet gaming. Imagine having an application on Google Play or Apple…then cut out the middle man Google and Apple…that is what is meant by a decentralized platform for developers.

 

There are a lot of eSports and gaming options above, so you have your work cut out for you in determining which are the right investments for you. Also, many of these are competing against each other, so in some cases, a company or coin can lose to another while the overall industry takes off.

I will link a few more links here of some pages I ran across while compiling this eSports and gaming article… this one touches on WAX, CHIMAERA (not the metal band), DreamTeam, First Blood, HunterCoin, Skrilla, and BitQuest. And here is a HUGE LIST of ESports and gaming coins. Also, Steve Bannon was recently pointed out as having in a stake in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and in that article it is mentioned how he was involved with the Gaming Industry before he was involved in President Trump’s candidacy. So this industry has been around, and is still growing.

Above are a few plays you can look at if you want to take advantage of the rise of eSports and gaming. Is there something you think needs to be listed here? Please sound off below. Thanks for spending your time here. I know our time is limited and I appreciate that you chose this page on which to spend it.

Travis

JMJ – UIOGD

Former chief strategist to President Trump, Stephen Bannon, is betting on Bitcoin. Much like Donald Trump threw a wrench into the status quo of politics, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can throw a wrench into how conventional banking and entire industries function.

In a New York Times article by Jeremy W. Peters and Nathaniel Popper, Bannon admits that he has a “good stake” in Bitcoin and has had private meetings with hedge fund managers, crypto investors, and those behind ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings).

bannon betting on bitcoinSome key words and quotes throughout the article would win some friends in the cryptocurrency realm…

Steve Bannon said “It’s disruptive populism…It takes control back from central authorities. It’s revolutionary.”

“It was pretty obvious to me that unless you got somehow control over your currency, all these political movements were going to be beholden to who controlled the currency,”

He acknowledged that central banks “debase your currency” and make citizens “slaves to debt.” And recycled the famous  “Control of the currency…is control of everything.”

Betting on Bitcoin is Betting on Free Speech

As the article mentions, many who identify as alt-right or nationalist have been restricted by PayPal and Apple Pay. Others have seen their sites smeared and their applications blocked from being listed on Google Play.

These groups have relied on Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies to get funding and donations.

One social media platform Gab.ai (of which I have invested a small amount), is even in the process of launching an SEC compliant ICO.

The article also mentions coins being created tied to national wealth, like a marble based coin by Italy. Bannon’s connection with Brock Pierce (who has a highly questionable past) who was also involved with EOS at a point, and their involvement in the rapidly growing world of gaming.

When speaking of those who are behind the cryptocurrencies and blockchain projects, the article ends with a quote, “These guys are visionaries.”

 

The entire market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined is still less than 300 billion! It is not too late to get in. You can follow some of my trades on Trading ViewYou can check out RealLifeTrading to learn how to trade cryptos yourself. You can follow this site for occasional info. Or you can follow others who are even more involved than I. Feel free to reach out for any questions…

Travis

JMJ – UIOGD

A Blessed Resurrection to you!

As a relatively early adopter of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, I was the first to introduce quite a few people to the world changing technology of blockchain and associated projects. One of those people was Jerremy Newsome of the IR4 podcast and Real Life Trading. The IR4 podcast had me on last week and we discussed some bitcoin predictions, governmental policies, and ICO’s among other things. Hope you find it valuable, enjoy!

links relevant to the podcast….

Start Engine – Equity Crowdfunding Investment Opportunities

Gab ICO – Initial Coin Offering for GAB Free Speech Social Network

Start Engine ICO Summit – Network and learn about the upcoming ICOs set to disrupt the industry

CLOUD Act – A privacy infringing expansion of data collection powers

$10,000 Bitcoin – Our article from December 2016, calling for $10,000 Bitcoin, back when the price was only around $1,000.

IR4 – It’s the Fourth Industrial Revolution Podcast – You can find information surrounding Global consciousnesses, the way we interact, conduct business, and overall live as human beings. Check it out to heat about everything from entrepreneurshipAIblockchain techIoTeco intelligencenano techcryptocurrenciesfundraisingwearable techquantum computing, 3D printing and all other things changing the world. See their Patreon page HERE.

Real Life Trading – Is Jerremy’s trading group. You can get some free content there, as well as have the opportunity to join the trading groups (morning and/or afternoon sessions), get the Weekly Options Newsletter, or delve into the Cryptocurrency Trading course.

-Travis

JMJ – UIOGD

Cryptocurrencies are here to stay, and I believe that blockchain technology will change the world and eventually find in a place in our everyday lives, BUT there are scams and frauds that must be navigated around on the way up.

There is good and evil in this world, and evil will always try to perpetuate some scheme in an attempt to satiate their vices. Today it is this, tomorrow it is that. This article intends to point out a few of the mines in the mine field, the reader can decide which are evil or not.

For more context, in December 2016, this site foretold bitcoin reaching $10,000. Eventually, it will reach another all-time high, much higher than that. (the only disclaimer is if another coin dethrones bitcoin dominance in the meantime) So this article is from the mind of a long term crypto bull, but in the short term, I’d really like to see this current batch of mines cleared out before really getting bullish again.

Crytopcurrency Mines

Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect, Issuance of Tether, Possible Futures manipulation, Initial Coin Offering scams, Pump-and-Dumps, and Mt.Gox Trustee distribution are a few main issues right now.

If you are more of a visual learner, you gotta see this video. It’s about 40 mins…called Decentralized Deception.

Actually, everyone reading could benefit from the video. You will hear clips from the perpetrators themselves. You will also see the unfortunate conclusion for some people of the scams, like one man who was streaming from his new home, aka his car.


Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect are featured in the video and don’t require much more comment here. Watch the video and do your due diligence.

TETHER (USDT)

Tether (USDT) and the bots trading the Tether prints appear quite nefarious. On Tether’s own site, they have a 6 months old “Proof of Funds” report. Well 6 months ago there were only about 400 million Tethers. Today there are 2.2 BILLION. Now you may say “Travis, how much of an impact can 2 billion have on a market that is 400 billion?”

Fair question. But if you know about trading, you know it is a story of sentiment. And if you know that bitcoin dominance is down to around 40%, then you know that bitcoin’s market cap is around 153 billion.

Please stay with me… For the unaudited Tether to go from 400 million in September 2017 to 2.2 billion in March 2018, there would have to be an average of 10 million Tether added per day!! Now, Tethers are not printed daily, so these Tethers would be added more infrequently and in bigger batches, like 50 million or 100 million at a time. So with that, lets look at what a 100 million dollar dump would look like to a normal stock.

Let’s take Pepsico as an example of the issue here. Pepsico (PEP:NAS) trades at about $112.75 per share right now, and has a market cap of 160 billion, close to bitcoin’s 153 million. If one were to buy 100 million dollars worth of Pepsi stock, they would buy 886,917 shares. Pepsi’s average daily volume is around 4,000,000 shares. So a strategically placed order of 886,917 shares (more than 20% of daily volume) would have a considerable impact on the price of Pepsi and the sentiment around it. This is quite simple, and in reality, the application of this trade would be more complex, but I just want to show you what impact Tether has on bitcoin, if it is being printed out of nothing.

In bitcoins case, $100 million can buy almost 11,000 bitcoin. Most exchanges do not have 11,000 volume in an entire day. So hopefully you can see how it wouldn’t take much to manipulate the price. I assume it would go something like this..

1- Tether printed. 2- USDT traded for BTC  3- Spike in volume and price increase drives sentiment to bring in more buyers. 4- Arbitrage bots reach target and trade BTC for US dollars. 5- Tether now has USD to cover some of the new printing. 6- BTC price eventually falls. 7- More Tethers printed. Repeat.

To me, the faster Tethers crash the better, no matter what happens to the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies because of it. Until then, I guess all that we can do is refuse to trade USDT, even if it’s convenient to use on any given exchange, don’t trade it. Whether it’s liquidity or regulator clamp down, Tethers need a bitconnect moment, in my opinion.

And if you want more, here is a THEORY of what a possible Futures manipulation would look like using Tethers.

 

Mt.Gox Trustee

As if the pressure of Tethers on the market was not enough, we have the Mt. Gox bitcoin dump to contend with. Mt. Gox was an exchange that went belly up, and years later, the bankruptcy trustee is recently moving the bitcoin from cold storage onto exchanges. This has a similar effect as the Tethers from the previous section. Below you can see the distribution of bitcoin, and the impact it had on the market.

mtgox-dumps

 

This is the impact of 40,000 BTC. The trustee has 160,000 BTC more from what I can tell. As of this writing, there is no word on future distributions, as it seems the next court proceedings are not until September 2018.

Whether it’s Tethers or Mt.Gox dumping, these actions have huge impact on the price of bitcoin. When they do it on any one exchange, it is more than enough to trigger a large enough move, which then triggers existing stop and/or limit orders, and can bring the entire market down in short time. Trade responsibily.

 

Ongoing Scams

Tether and Mt.Gox are the big fish to me right now. Though in general you should always beware of ICOs and Pump-and-Dumps, etc. These will be ongoing obstacles.

Initial Coin Offering – ICO

As the use of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology develops, there will be many new coins and utilities. They will range from between ‘world changing’ and scams. Before investing in any ICO, read it’s whitepaper, study the team behind it, and exercise overall diligence.

Pump-and-Dumps

Just see twitter or certain ‘newsletters’ and these will not be hard to find. A person/group will shill for a coin, drive it’s price up, then dump it.

FUD

Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. This is a disinformation strategy used by others to influence perception in order to attain a certain goal. Fake news.

Regulations

As crypto grows, so will the attempt to regulate it. Regulations in of themselves may not be that bad, some may actually be good and beneficial. But again, learn to discern between the actual regulation being discussed, and the aforementioned FUD surrounding it.

Tether Alternative

Back to Tether for a moment.

There has been news lately of Amazon inquiring about banking. Ask yourself…if Amazon or Apple took some of there cash and made a real 1:1 crytpo USD pair, do you think the price of Tether would crash? I do. Even those weary of a Jeff Bezos world takeover would still trust him over Bitfinex and Tether.

Actually, I find it amazing that no major, regulated bank has tried this. They could literally issue their TRANSPARENTLY AUDITED 1:1 USD crypto, then charge a meager fee for the customer to exchange to USD at anytime. Maybe legally it would have to be a separate entity from the actual bank… but one of the banks or an Amazon/Apple should clear with the SEC to see what would be legal…and do it. Just do it honestly.

This seems like a no-brainer for Amazon or Apple to do to essentially accept bitcoin at checkout, without the risk of the volatility. And I suppose the ideal coin would have an elastic supply, instead of a fixed one, to maintain the 1:1 ratio with USD. Anyway, I’m sure some developer could figure it out for a price that Bezos can easily afford.

Closing

Once the current mine field is cleared out, those of evil nature will no doubt devise other schemes to attain ill gotten gains. Such is a part of the ongoing battle between good and evil. We will just have to be vigilant as cryptocurrencies continue their widespread adoption.

All and all, I still believe cryptocurrencies and blockchain will be an integral part of our lives. I still believe they will change the finances of many that ‘invest’ in them. This is to serve as a warning to navigate the obstacles in realizing that ascent. Also, may this serve as a psychological aid for if the time comes when prices become unbelievably low again. That you view it as an opportunity of a lifetime, not the end of it.

Among all that was in this article, you can still actively trade crypto with this knowledge. Though I only recommend it with proper attention and risk mitigation. You can learn a lot about this and get access to a crypto trading program from RealLifeTrading. Disclaimer: I am currently subscribed there.   

Also, you can find several people who know what they are doing on Trading View like MPC and RLT.

Did I misrepresent anything? Do you have anything to add or correct? Please comment below if so.

Hope this article serves you well.

-Travis

God Bless

JMJ – UIOGD