Archive for the ‘stocks’ Category

As the last quarter of 2018 begins, what is a realistic price to expect for Bitcoin going into 2019, and why? The current price of Bitcoin is $6,652 …… but just how far away is $100,000? What about $300,000?!

In 2016, I published an article Bitcoin and Gold in 2017 | $10,000 Bitcoin is Coming. At the time, Bitcoin was only trading for $959, so the call for $10,000 seemed outlandish to many….just like $300,000 may seem outlandish today. Back then, it took 3 years for bitcoin to meet the territory of its previous all time high from 2013, and then another 11 months for bitcoin to go from $959 to $10,000.

$100,000 Bitcoin

Looking at the history of the price swings in Bitcoin, $100,000 is not that far away. Though in truth, neither is $3,000! Bitcoin is still regarded as ‘speculative’ by many, and there are a great number of people who have still never heard of it! Despite the advances and developments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, mass adoption has NOT yet been realized.

Again, avoiding the discussion of decentralized money, and all the risks and rewards of cryptocurrencies, this article is to serve as a price forecast, so we will begin with the same market capitalization breakdown as in the 2016 article. Let’s illustrate why $100,000 Bitcoin is coming.

$100,000 Bitcoin and Market Capitalization

Market capitalization is the total value of something. In the case of Bitcoin, the market cap is currently about $115.37 billion dollars.

This is calculated by taking the current total number of Bitcoins in existence 17,281,987 and multiplying it by the current price of $6,676. (note: Bitcoins will cease to be mined at 21 million, here you can track the market capitalization of all crypto currencies)

As Bitcoin is traded globally, (even though the current market cap dwarfs the $15.4 billion from 2016) $115.37 billion dollars is still not much at all. Consider that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) alone has a market cap of $1,051 billion dollars…and consider that there is nearly $90 trillion in global equities in general!

*note: Since 2016 article.. Bitcoin market cap has increased from $15.4 billion to $115.37 billion. 
Apple from $625 billion to to $1,051 billion. Global equities from around 70 trillion to 90 trillion.

 

$100,000 Bitcoin would equal a market cap of $1,728 billion dollars. That is still less than the combined size of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT). Those two companies combine for a market cap of $1,810 billion. We must also consider that those are companies, and Bitcoin has a potential as a global currency.

For another perspective, if Bitcoin market cap were to reach the level of capitalization as Apple is currently, one Bitcoin would be valued at $60,800.

Bitcoin’s all time high was $19,891 at the end of 2017. That price was achieved in spite of it still being an unproven commodity. We are still talking about a 10 year old currency, which challenges the modern day central banking system, in a world with a $135 trillion GDP!

Now you can see, it’s nothing at all to get Bitcoin to $100,000. It’s all a matter of sentiment and mass adoption, and there are developers and advocates working around the clock to ensure that very eventual mass adoption.

Another perspective, the United States Monetary base peaked in 2015 at $4,167 billion. For one bitcoin to be valued at $300,000, its market cap would be near $5,184 billion. Therefore, $300,000 is a reasonable eventual price if bitcoin were to gain equal footing with the US dollar and other global currencies. Then, you can really start to blow your mind if you contemplate it’s price if it were to gain dominance over the other global currencies. But first thing is first.

This section was to help you conceptualize the potential of value of Bitcoin. The eventual price of $100,000…$300,000…$1,000,000 for one bitcoin is not outlandish, but a very real possibility…and for many, it is an expectation.

And now….the real reason why you are here…. WHEN?

 

Bitcoin! When Moon, When Lambo?

There are those who unfortunately only buy into bitcoin manias to ride the rocket to the moon, to get rich quick, to buy lamborghinis….They make the price bubbles possible, and oftentimes are parted with their money. There are others who day trade cryptocurrencies as a stocktrader trades stocks. There are others who are true believers and “hodl” at any price, in hopes of an unimaginable wealth in the future. All of these groups of people must utilize the story told in the chart. And that is the story we will predict here.

I’m not ignorant of the fact that many have travelled down the ‘price prediction’ trap. It’s a dangerous territory putting one’s trustworthiness, credibility, and authority at risk. Also, consider these dates and prices as entertainment purposes. Don’t remortgage your house because you read on a blog that bitcoin would be worth $300,000 … you know? With that, here we go…

 

The first point to make is that bitcoin is a creature of habit. As you can see from the charts above, the bubble from 2017-2018 has an identical structure as does the bubble from 2013-2015. One major note is that bitcoin is moving almost twice as fast this time when compared to last time. The above chart is a weekly chart, and the current chart is a 4 day chart. IF we see a higher high in the very near future, I count the next bull run as being activated. If the higher high is delayed, this entire prediction will be off.

A few other things to look for… We should see price break through the 50 day moving average line, and we should see volume really pick up on a bullish move.

 

 

Another fact worth considering, is that the ‘bubble crash’ followed by a ‘cup and handle’ formation is not unique to bitcoin. This happens to many stocks as well. While some companies never recover from such a crash, others, like Amazon, soar exponentially. For example, after the dot com bubble in 1999, Amazon lost over 90% of its value, and bottomed at nearly $10 a share. Today, that $10 share is now valued at nearly $2,000!!

Again, current bitcoin price is moving even faster than Amazon. The Amazon chart is a 2 week chart, and the current bitcoin chart is a 4 day chart.

Now for the price predictions! Please take these as approximates. Bitcoin is so volatile, that I don’t pretend to KNOW what exactly is going to happen. This is merely my best guess based on previous bitcoin price movement…. here is what we get…

 

This current $6,000 – $7,000 price level is a great spot to accumulate in my opinion. Could there be a capitulation and a dump in price? Sure. But I would expect such a dip to be followed by a violent rip upwards in price. This is a great spot for long term positions considering the potential long-term prices.

The key potential prices and timelines:

  • End of 2018 – $10,000
  • New all-time high over $20,000 by July 2019
  • $100,000 level reached in December 2019
  • Bubble top up to $330,000 in December 2019
  • Crash down to near $100,000 accumulation in 2020
  • Wild card: next bubble top before 2022 near $5 million!

As before, when Bitcoin popularity grows, euphoria takes hold, prices skyrocket, then FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) is interjected, people will panic, the price will fall, there will be an accumulation period, then people eventually start using it again, then it’s popularity grows, euphoria takes over, and on goes the cycle….albeit with a new floor and support.

Regardless of how accurate these price predictions are, it is not a bad move to add Bitcoin to your cash and tangible assets. The potential of bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and blockchain is real. $100,000 Bitcoin is not that far away.

Lastly, here is an interview I gave in March 2018. This is the part of the interview in which we spoke of the future price of bitcoin…

How do I buy some? How can I trade it?

The easiest way for a beginner to buy bitcoin is through Coinbase. The link is my referral link. Upon buying or selling $100 worth of bitcoin, we both get $10 worth of bitcoin added to our accounts. Coinbase is FDIC insured for it’s cash deposits, and you set up your account much like you would a bank account. However, there is no branch you need to go to, you submit everything digitally. It’s fairly easy and a decent option for beginners.

To trade bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies), you first should be a competent trader with a trading plan! There are some exchanges which allow highly leveraged positions, with forced liquidations, and its just an all around bad recipe for beginners. That said, I personally use Kraken, Binance, Coinbase, and Bittrex.

If you need any help, feel free to reach out to me. I will help you free of charge as much as is reasonable. And if you need help setting up accounts or anything requiring more time, I’ll just ask for a nominal fee.

Also, I recommend Real Life Trading’s Crypto Course if you would like to start from scratch with a 5 video intro series to bitcoin, blockchain, and trading.

Conclusion

Heading into 2019, the Trump Rally may be nearing it’s end, and many emerging markets are already showing signs of a correction. As money flows out of equities, it very well may end up in cryptocurrencies.

Consider taking advantage of, or at least studying, the current opportunities in Bitcoin, other cryptos, and even the much maligned silver and gold. Oh, and instead of Lambos, may you be good stewards of your future crypto wealth. If you found this article helpful, or even entertaining, please consider throwing me a few satoshis. I don’t have nearly as many as I should, but that’s a topic for another article.

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Here are some useful tools:
Bitcoin Wallet – Coinbase
Bitcoin Charts
Real Life Trading Crypto Course

Crytpo Currency Market Capitalizations
Bitcoin real time flow

-Travis

JMJ – UIOGD

What is blockchain?

July 18th, 2018 by Vigilo

Being a proponent of cryptocurrencies, it is obvious that mass adoption is still a long way off.

The price of 1 bitcoin topped at nearly $20,000 in late 2017. While that generated some interest, most people still have no idea what that means, or what they can do with it.

Bitcoin is a decentralized distributed cryptocurrency (digital currency) without a central bank. It has a fixed supply, so no government or administrator can create coins out of thin air, like the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin is the most popular crypto, but there are thousands of other cryptocurrencies and tokens which address literally all aspects of human life. People are working to improve not only payment systems on the blockchain, but also healthcare, insurance, real estate transactions, information, voting, etc.

Improvement is good right? But before we get into learning all the different coins, what they do, and how to trade them…we all start at this first question. What is the Blockchain?

What is the Blockchain?

Instead of typing out how blockchain works, it may be easier to absorb through some tutorial videos. In about 40 mins, you can see all of the videos, and have a better understanding of what is blockchain. In the final video, you can actually see blockchain in practice.

 

If you are ready for more information beyond “What is Blockchain”, and want to learn how to trade cryptocurrencies, let me know.  I can recommend a full paid course that is not my own. Also, I can personally give you some tips, and if you want some more coaching beyond that, I can do so for a nominal fee.

Any questions or comments, fell free to do so below.

Travis

JMJ – UIOGD

Every now and then, I have a little mercy on my wife, and I bail her out from cooking dinner with an impromptu trip to a restaurant (preferably with a buffet). In this case, it was an Eat n Park. As we ate our 5 or so helpings from the unlimited soup and salad bar, we could not help overhearing the conversation from the adjacent booth.

OK. It wasn’t much of a conversation. Maybe it was a date? All we can say for sure is that it was an uninterested female, listening to a very animated guy (about 30 years old) talk non-stop about…..a video game. The amount of detail, the characters, the strategy, how much each character costs, the amount of time devoted, and on…we got quite the dose of eSports and gaming. Not to be gossipers, but my wife and I filled in a few blanks for each other as we took turns making trips to the buffet. I mean, we were kinda curious as to just how important this game was, to warrant him NOT having a car, as the game took so much of his time and money. Yeah, his admission.

That meal really hit home just how obsessed, er, devoted gamers can be. This guy eats, sleeps, and breathes his video game. Though surely he is not alone. In fact, he mentioned many ‘friends’ whom he had never met. One guy he really admired and envied, acquired a certain coveted character! Wow! As for the girl, she was just giving dismissive ‘mmm’ responses to everything…. But it begs the question: How many more are like him?

The Rising Trend of eSports and Gaming

For better or worse, things change. Trends come and go. Fads rise and fall.

Before continuing, I should disclose that I have not personally played a video game in probably decades. I’ve been meaning to plug in that dusty Nintendo I have stored away, and play “Ice Hockey, ” but something always is higher on the to-do list. (It really is called “Ice Hockey” btw)

That said, I’m definitely aware that others do play video games… a lot…and the Rising Trend of eSports and Gaming is real. I’ve walked past my now college age cousin playing with a headset, conversing with players in-game. I’ve heard the complaints from my sister about my nephew playing too much. I know that there are gamers of various stripes.

Contrast this air conditioned ‘play time’ with that of a story from the Great Depression. My nanu (grandfather) has many stories of how they played outside as youth. They even reused construction scraps to create variations of games we know today. Or my mother who recalls how all the neighborhood kids would be outside playing baseball, hockey, sled riding, etc. My own youth was spent outside on the swing, then climbing trees (until the neighbor cut them down), playing hockey, bicycling, swimming, and so on. After all, staying in the house would be considered a form of strict punishment!

But now, many kids prefer to stay in the house playing video games….electronic sports. Pigskin is being swapped for pixels. Vulcanized rubber for a plastic remote. Helmet for a headset.

The trend is clear. ESports and gaming are on the rise.

Where else can this be measured?

Pro Sports Attendance

There has been a topic recently about Major League Baseball instituting rule changes (like introducing the designated hitter in the National League) to increase offense. Why? Attendance has been getting hammered, down 6.6% from a year ago! They believe that replacing a pitcher’s at-bat with an actual hitter will lead to more offense, which will keep better interest for fans. They overlook that the American League, which already has the designated hitter rule, has most of the lowest drawing teams by attendance.

Is this an anomaly? Apparently not. In 2015, the National Football League’s Super Bowl had a TV viewership of over 114 million. In 2018, the viewership was down to 103 million.

After the ‘Stand for the Anthem’ controversy last season, several NFL stadiums saw huge swaths of empty seats. This was not really apparent in attendance as the tickets were pre sold (it will be interesting to see what happens this upcoming season)… but the eye test was unmistakable.

Staples Center | Los Angeles, CA | League of Legends Final | 2013

Staples Center | Los Angeles, CA | League of Legends Final | 2013

The National Hockey League’s San Jose Sharks play hockey at the SAP Centre. That venue hosted the INTEL Extreme Masters gaming event and drew 12,500 fans over two days. It’s true that the Sharks draw way more than that in a single game, but the INTEL event was viewed by 4 million people from their homes! That is ALMOST as many viewers as the NHL’s Stanley Cup Final draws! So it can be said that regular season viewership of the NHL is already surpassed by eSports and gaming viewership. Yes, read that again.

More ESports photos here.

An article on growing eSports viewership here.

Sure there and many variables with these stats, like weather for baseball attendance, and live streaming for hockey viewership. The point is, rule changes will do nothing in the face of a demographic shift.

 

This entire write up is not to say pro sports is dead, but it is changing. It must not be ignored that peak professional sports may be really close, if not already here. There is major competition in the rising eSports and gaming area, and we can see that attendance and viewers of conventional pro sports is becoming a concern.

It’s not all that crazy though. None of the major sports leagues even existed 150 years ago. When compared to thousands of years of human history, what is 150 years, but a phase. And the era of ever inflationary mega contracts for the athletes is only a few decades old. There is no reason why there can’t be salary deflation. Especially if attendance and viewership continues to trend down. The owners are running a business, and none of them want to lose money.

See below this IR4 chat about the Past, Present, and Future of Video Games. IR4 stands for the 4th Industrial Revolution. Check out their IR4 Patreon page to keep up with future updates.  (note: there are a few expletives used during the eSports and gaming talk)

 

Maybe you still are not convinced that eSports and gaming are a big deal… Then you should probably go to Eat n Park for the soup and salad bar. It’s only 8$ for a limited time… 11$ if you get it with a meal.

If you are already convinced that eSports and gaming are just beginning to take off in popularity, then here are some ways to prosper.

 

Capitalize on the Rise of eSports and Gaming

We are called to be good stewards of all that God provides us. So if you do take advantage of these opportunities in the Rise of eSports and gaming, be charitable with your wealth.

Keep in mind, it may not be the best time to buy some of these companies, as some of them are overbought or heading into resistance. However, a pullback can prove to be an opportunity of a lifetime. This is to alert you to long term plays for eSports and gaming, not for specific short term trades.

 

The recently launched HUYA Inc. (HUYA) is a leading game live streaming platform in China.

huya

 

Versus Systems Inc (VRSSF) has launched the Winfinite platform, which gives developers and publishers the ability to give in-game and real-world items as prizes. 

 

Activision Blizzard (ATVI) owns the Overwatch League! This is like the National Football League of gaming… and the owner of the New England Patriots and New York Mets are already owners of teams in the Overwatch League. More on Activision Blizzard here.

 

Tencent Holdings Ltd. (TCEHY) is a Chinese company which has the biggest stake in gaming in the whole world. It has owns most of or a piece of almost everything in the eSports and gaming industry. It even owns a piece of Activation Blizzard. 

 

Electronic Arts (EA) is the owner of the popular EA Sports subsidiary. They have been churning out games for several decades and have made popular the ‘Madden’ line of football games. 

 

Mentioned in the IR4 podcast was Twitch. Twitch was actually acquired by Amazon (AMZN). Through Amazon Web Services they can not be overlooked, as they have become a cloud computing giant, and Amazon is a mainstream vehicle to get involved with ESports. 

 

Fijian e-Gaming Tournament Group is partnering with AsuraCoin, currently in ICO, to be the token for payments to their tournament winners.

 

Unikrn has the UnicoinGold (UKG) betting token… and if people bet on conventional sports, then of course betting on eSports and gaming is to follow in big numbers. 

 

Skincoin (SKIN) allows gamers a medium-of-exchange to customize characters and buy upgrades…. and obviously these in-game items have a monetary value attached, as we heard from the guy at Eat n Park. 

 

Decentraland (MANA) is a virtual reality platform of the Ethereum blockchain. Virtual Reality. 

 

Enjin (ENJ) is a cryptocurrency for virtual goods. 

 

GameCredits (GAME) has a decentralized platform for developers to reach gamers, and also is trying to become the sole payment system for internet gaming. Imagine having an application on Google Play or Apple…then cut out the middle man Google and Apple…that is what is meant by a decentralized platform for developers.

 

There are a lot of eSports and gaming options above, so you have your work cut out for you in determining which are the right investments for you. Also, many of these are competing against each other, so in some cases, a company or coin can lose to another while the overall industry takes off.

I will link a few more links here of some pages I ran across while compiling this eSports and gaming article… this one touches on WAX, CHIMAERA (not the metal band), DreamTeam, First Blood, HunterCoin, Skrilla, and BitQuest. And here is a HUGE LIST of ESports and gaming coins. Also, Steve Bannon was recently pointed out as having in a stake in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and in that article it is mentioned how he was involved with the Gaming Industry before he was involved in President Trump’s candidacy. So this industry has been around, and is still growing.

Above are a few plays you can look at if you want to take advantage of the rise of eSports and gaming. Is there something you think needs to be listed here? Please sound off below. Thanks for spending your time here. I know our time is limited and I appreciate that you chose this page on which to spend it.

Travis

JMJ – UIOGD

Former chief strategist to President Trump, Stephen Bannon, is betting on Bitcoin. Much like Donald Trump threw a wrench into the status quo of politics, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can throw a wrench into how conventional banking and entire industries function.

In a New York Times article by Jeremy W. Peters and Nathaniel Popper, Bannon admits that he has a “good stake” in Bitcoin and has had private meetings with hedge fund managers, crypto investors, and those behind ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings).

bannon betting on bitcoinSome key words and quotes throughout the article would win some friends in the cryptocurrency realm…

Steve Bannon said “It’s disruptive populism…It takes control back from central authorities. It’s revolutionary.”

“It was pretty obvious to me that unless you got somehow control over your currency, all these political movements were going to be beholden to who controlled the currency,”

He acknowledged that central banks “debase your currency” and make citizens “slaves to debt.” And recycled the famous  “Control of the currency…is control of everything.”

Betting on Bitcoin is Betting on Free Speech

As the article mentions, many who identify as alt-right or nationalist have been restricted by PayPal and Apple Pay. Others have seen their sites smeared and their applications blocked from being listed on Google Play.

These groups have relied on Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies to get funding and donations.

One social media platform Gab.ai (of which I have invested a small amount), is even in the process of launching an SEC compliant ICO.

The article also mentions coins being created tied to national wealth, like a marble based coin by Italy. Bannon’s connection with Brock Pierce (who has a highly questionable past) who was also involved with EOS at a point, and their involvement in the rapidly growing world of gaming.

When speaking of those who are behind the cryptocurrencies and blockchain projects, the article ends with a quote, “These guys are visionaries.”

 

The entire market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined is still less than 300 billion! It is not too late to get in. You can follow some of my trades on Trading ViewYou can check out RealLifeTrading to learn how to trade cryptos yourself. You can follow this site for occasional info. Or you can follow others who are even more involved than I. Feel free to reach out for any questions…

Travis

JMJ – UIOGD

Stock Alert: STRL Is Positioned To Gain Big

August 30th, 2017 by Vigilo

Sterling Construction (STRL: NASDAQ) is positioned to gain big over the coming weeks.

Thanks to the National Inflation Association for shining light on STRL. They sent out the suggestion Monday August 28th, when the price was $10.25 per share. As of the close Tuesday August 29th, it was already up to $11.99 per share.

To give an example of the gains that are available, in a little over a day, options at the $12.50 price, expiring in December 2017 had already gained over 150% ! But what is fueling this stock?

Sterling Construction is an infrastructure company based just outside of Houston, TX.

But that’s not all. Even before Hurricane Harvey devastated the area, the company was highlighted to gain from national transportation projects. Now, add in all of the Houston area projects that they could bid on during the rebuild phase after Hurricane Harvey, and this company could hurdle it’s all time highs in value.

 

strl2

 

As you can see, there is some resistance in the $13 range…but if it can clear the $14 range, there is not much to hold it back.

Of note, in NIA’s suggestion, they had mentioned that it could reach $15-$20.

Con: On the flip side, Unicorn Bay has STRL’s book value listed at only $4.86.

Whether or not you decide to enter a position on STRL, consider donating some of your profits to those affected by Hurricane Harvey.

-Travis

JMJ – IOGD